Few are in any real doubt about Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's imminent comfortable election as Egypt's president in the polling which gets underway today. A firm favourite of the media, the former head of the army, offers many Egyptians a sense of security and stability and a promise of economic recovery after the turmoil and bloodletting of the two and a half years since President Hosni Mubarak was ousted. A Pew Research Centre poll, published last week found that 54 per cent of Egyptians had a favourable image of him while 45 per cent viewed him negatively.
That showing would appear to be the basis of a comfortable mandate in the election, albeit somewhat less enthusiastic support than the Egyptian press leads one to believe he enjoys. And digging down into the Pew poll exposes more uncomfortable realities about the deeply flawed election now underway. The name of Sisi's real antagonist, Mohammed Morsi, overthrown by a military coup led by Sisi last July and now languishing in jail, will not appear on the ballot paper, although the former democratically elected president commands some 42 per cent support in the same poll. Only a narrow majority now looks back with favour on his overthrow.
Although down from six in 10 last spring, four out of 10 Egyptians still have a favourable view of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, now banned as a terrorist organisation. The widespread killings, arrests and torture of oppositionists and curbs on demonstrations has swept up not only Islamists but many of the young secularists who overthrew Mubarak and have been seen as the conscience of the now fast-fading Egyptian Spring. Many will now join the Brotherood boycott of the poll.
Overall 72 per cent of Egyptians surveyed said they are dissatisfied with the way things are going, and 24 per cent, satisfied. Even among supporters of the military takeover, only 35 per cent are satisfied.
Sisi will be the sixth military man to run Egypt since the army overthrew the monarchy in 1952, restoring a pattern briefly interrupted by Morsi's one year in office. He will exercise both executive and legislative powers until a new parliament is elected.