Barack Obama has thrown his support behind German diplomatic efforts to contain Russia in Ukraine, hinting that military alternatives under consideration by the White House remain largely symbolic and fraught with danger.
In a joint press conference with German chancellor Angela Merkel aimed at emphasising western unity, the president largely ignored pressure from some in Washington to send arms to Ukraine, preferring instead to keep future options for ratcheting US support vague.
"Russian aggression has only reinforced the unity of the United States and Germany and our allies and partners around the world," Mr Obama said. "We continue to encourage a diplomatic resolution to this issue, and as diplomatic efforts continue this week, we are in absolute agreement that the 21st century cannot stand idle and simply allow the borders of Europe to be redrawn at the barrel of the gun."
Immediately after the meeting, the Republican chair of the House armed services committee announced the launch of a Bill in Congress to arm Ukraine that would probably be vetoed by the White House.
Asked if the US and Germany were playing “good cop, bad cop”, Mr Obama stressed that his punitive options remained largely limited to increasing the economic cost of Russian actions rather than preventing it outright.
“Russia obviously has an extraordinarily powerful military and, you know, given the length of the Russian border with Ukraine, given the history between Russia and Ukraine, expecting that, if Russia is determined, Ukraine can fully rebuff a Russian army has always been unlikely,” he said.
“But what we have said is that the international community, working together, can ratchet up the costs for the violation of the core principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity – and that’s exactly what we’ve done.”
Success far from assured
Dr Merkel also acknowledged that the success of her negotiations was far from assured, suggesting that both leaders see little prospect of preventing
Vladimir Putin
continuing to support Ukrainian separatists if he is determined to ride out economic sanctions.
"There is anything but an assured success in all of this; I have to be very clear about this," she said of latest peace talks in Minsk. "But if, at a certain point in time, one has to say that a success is not possible, even if one puts every effort into it, then the United States and Europe have to sit together and try and explore further possibilities, what one can do . . . The foreign ministers of the European Union last week already tasked the commission to think about further possible sanctions."
The relatively resigned tone of their press conference came in stark contrast to some in Washington, including incoming defence secretary Ashton Carter, who favours more military support to Ukraine, but Mr Obama made clear even this option was limited to the possibility of helping Kiev fight Ukrainian separatists, not Russia.
“It is true that if, in fact, diplomacy fails, what I’ve asked my team to do is to look at all options. What other means can we put in place to change Mr Putin’s calculus? And the possibility of lethal defensive weapons is one of those options that’s being examined,” he said.
“But I have not made a decision about that yet . . . it’s not based on the idea that Ukraine could defeat a Russian army that was determined; it is rather to see whether or not there are additional things we can do to help Ukraine bolster its defences in the face of separatist aggression.”
Sop to hawks
In perhaps the only sop to more hawkish critics, Mr Obama did argue that providing weapons should be seen as a continuation of existing support rather than an abrupt escalation.
“There’s not going to be any specific point at which I say, ‘Ah, you know, clearly lethal defensive weapons would be appropriate here’,” he said. “It is our ongoing analysis of what can we do to dissuade Russia from encroaching further and further on Ukrainian territory.”
Nonetheless, both leaders made clear that they regarded diplomatic negotiations as the only realistic option for solving the crisis and rejected the notion of Germany acting as go-between for Russia and the US.
“We are called upon now to come up with solutions, but not in the sense of a mediator. But we also stand up for the interests of the European peaceful order,” said Dr Merkel. “What’s important for me is that we stand very closely together on the question of a new, renewed diplomatic effort.”
Earlier on Monday, Mr Putin demanded that the Ukrainian government had to conduct direct talks with pro-Russia separatist rebels if there was to be any chance of agreeing a durable ceasefire.
In the midst of the most intensive week of diplomacy since the Ukraine crisis erupted a year ago and with western leaders warning of a major upsurge in violence if this week’s negotiations fail, there was scant sign of any let-up in the war of words between the Kremlin and western capitals.
"The Ukrainian crisis was not caused by the Russian Federation, " said Mr Putin in remarks posted on the Kremlin website. "It emerged in response to the attempts of the US and its western allies – who consider themselves 'winners' of the cold war – to impose their will everywhere."
Suspicions
The remarks reinforced western suspicions that Mr Putin has never accepted the outcome of the collapse of Soviet and east European communism in 1989-91 and is engaged in an attempt to revise the results of the post-cold war order.
In advance of the Minsk summit on Wednesday, Mr Putin has presented a nine-page peace plan which demands that the separatists be treated as equals in the negotiations, expands the territory under their control under a new ceasefire line, insists on a halt to Ukrainian attacks on the rebel-held territory and also that the government in Kiev should continue to supply funding to rebel-held areas beyond its control.
With Ukraine unstable, and in economic freefall, Mr Putin appeared to have the stronger hand. – (Guardian service)