Angela Merkel has never been one for showing her hand before absolutely necessary. The charge from exasperated observers of her in action in Europe has always been that she doesn't make decisions until not doing so is impossible, until the road has almost run out.
So, expectations being whipped up in the British media earlier this week that, on her official visit, she was going to provide Prime Minister David Cameron with a letter of comfort, a pledge to back his as-yet unspecified demands for EU reform, were never realistic. As she playfully told a joint session of the British parliament at Westminster: "I have been told many times during the last few days that there are very special expectations of my speech here today. Supposedly, or so I have heard, some expect my speech to pave the way for a fundamental reform of the European architecture, which will satisfy all kinds of alleged or actual British wishes. I am afraid they are in for a disappointment...".
She tantalised with suggestions that she, like Cameron, was concerned about internal EU migration and “benefit tourism” but which could be tackled through amending national welfare rules. And making it clear there could be no question of undermining one of the key pillars and successes of the union, the free movement of people. Treaty change was possible but would necessarily be limited, she said, and acknowledged a key British concern, the need for further monetary union to take account of the requirements and rights of non-euro states.
The chancellor made clear that her main priority was to strengthen the euro – by ensuring that monetary union was matched by an economic union among eurozone members – with “clear cut and resilient architecture”.
Central to Merkel's message were two related arguments that a worryingly sceptical British public needed to hear. Firstly, that its friend Germany wants "a strong UK with a strong voice inside the EU", an important ally for reform and strengthening subsidiarity and competitiveness; and, secondly, more implicitly, that the UK itself has a strong interest in remaining part of the union, a crucial case that – as one columnist put it – her host has allowed to go by default in deference to the eurosceptics in his party. The danger is that when he starts to make that case ahead of the proposed 2017 'in-out' referendum, it will be too late.
Merkel, whose political sympathies would lean towards Cameron’s, has made it as clear as she can that she and other EU leaders, Enda Kenny included, hear and understand the British PM’s challenge and will go some way to assisting him. But only so far. And certainly no blank cheque. Cameron must be very careful not to pitch expectations of treaty renegotiation prospects unrealistically high.