As United States and European Union sanctions on Russia deepen and as the siege of Donetsk by Ukrainian forces continues, possibly provoking formal Russian military intervention, it is all too easy to become reconciled to a prolonged and escalating conflict over Ukraine's future. There is a definite drift towards intransigent positions on all sides, as evidenced by the mutual mistrust between Kiev and Moscow surrounding a Russian "aid convoy" bound for the rebel-held east of Ukraine. But since none of them really want a war, possible diplomatic ways to de-escalate the conflict and find a political settlement should be actively canvassed.
Ukraine straddles many ancient political, ethnic, linguistic and cultural divides. Its boundaries have repeatedly changed depending on its relations with or incorporation into neighbouring empires. When independence came after the collapse of the Soviet Union the opportunity was squandered by oligarchical misrule until the Orange revolution of 2004 and the civil society uprising over the last year held out the promise of a more inclusive future.
All these histories now play a role in Ukraine's fate. They require a recognition that to live at peace with itself and its neighbours it cannot threaten them. That must put off any question of Ukraine joining Nato for the foreseeable future, even if it comes closer to the EU by its own democratic choice. Any other course understandably raises Russian fears of encirclement and loss of the strategic depth that historically has protected it from western invasion. Those fears have been readily exploited by Vladimir Putin as he seeks to reverse Ukraine's Europeanisation in the name of an incompatible Eurasian alternative for Russia and its neighbours.
He too will have to compromise if a potential military conflict is to be avoided, a choice made harder by his decision to stoke up rebel resistance to Ukrainian forces’ efforts to recapture the eastern region after the Malaysian airliner was shot down last month.
Most Ukrainians, even in the east, want it to stay together rather than break up, secede or be taken over like Crimea was in March. That puts a huge responsibility on the new Ukrainian government led by President Petro Poroshenko to respect the linguistic and other rights of Russian speakers in the east and to plan for a probably federalised state that would allow such autonomy to be properly expressed. He and his government are not the fascists portrayed by Russian propaganda, but they must ensure their troops and militias give no basis for sustaining that charge. There is still time for a major initiative bringing the various forces at play together along these lines under a neutral facilitator and with the active support of Germany which has a deep interest, along with its EU partners, in avoiding a drift to war.