When Austrian voters elect a new president on Sunday, they will also be deciding on whether to retain – or dynamite– the left-right grand coalition model that has dominated the country’s post-war history.
Sunday’s election rerun presents voters with two presidential candidates: Norbert Hofer, the 45 year-old far-right Freedom Party (FPö) candidate who has a run on an “Austria first” platform that is critical of the EU and refugees.
His centrist rival Alexander Van der Bellen, a 72 year-old former Green Party leader, is presenting himself as a pro-EU establishment figure and safe pair of hands in uncertain times.
Regardless of who voters choose, they are likely to be back at the ballot boxes again within the year.
“The slow decline of Austria’s dominant two-party system has gathered momentum in recent months,” said political analyst Peter Hajek of the epic 11-month presidential campaign. “We assume there’ll be an election next year because the two coalition parties simply cannot work with each other any more.”
Voters eliminated candidates
In April’s presidential election first round, voters eliminated candidates from the ruling Social Democrats (SPö) and conservative People’s Party (öVP) to hand the populist Mr Hofer the first-round. The result was seen as an anti-elite protest vote, and an expression of disquiet at the consequences of the refugee crisis that saw Austria grant 90,000 people asylum last year.
In the May run-off Mr Van der Bellen finished ahead – by just 31,000 votes – and the supreme court granted an FPö request for a rerun after postal vote irregularities.
After nearly a year, the campaign for Austria’s largely symbolic head of state has turned into a battle royal for Austria’s future, with debate dominated not by presidential competences but issues uppermost in people’s minds: refugees, immigration, growth of less than 1 per cent and a historically high jobless rate of near 6 per cent.
Amid ongoing refugee crisis concerns – particularly on the welfare state and social cohesion – voters have defected to the opposition populists. In response the coalition government has sealed the border and plans to cut welfare entitlements for asylum seekers – all FPö policies.
‘Clever tactics’
“You can call this clever tactics and realistic – or simple capitulation,” noted Eva Linsinger, a columnist with
Profil
magazine.
Now, with an eye on early elections, Austria’s estranged coalition parties have both begun courting the far-right FPö.
Leading figures in the conservative People’s Party (öVP), which shared power briefly with far-right grouping in the early 2000s, came out this week in favour of Mr Hofer.
Six months after the SPö ousted its leader and chancellor Werner Faymann, meanwhile, successor Christian Kern believes an early election would capitalise on his novelty factor with voters.
Shattering a decades-old taboo, Mr Kern has started courting the FPö leader Heinz-Christian Strache. Dismissed as a “rabble-rouser” by the last SPö leader, Mr Kern said in a public meeting he respected Mr Strache’s interest in “advancing the country”.
Regardless of whether or not their candidate, Norbert Hofer, wins on Sunday, the FPö is riding high with 33 per cent support and multiple options for power even before the next parliamentary election is called.
"They just have to sit back and let everyone come to them," said Dr Alexandra Förderl-Schmid, editor-in-chief of Der Standard daily.
A recent poll for her paper placed FPö public support in striking contrast to perceptions of its competence. Two thirds of Austrians believe having the FPö in power would divide Austrian society, while just one in five believe FPö leaders have ministerial capability or that they stand for decency in politics.
Says Dr Förderl-Schmid: “That people are still prepared to vote for the FPö and Norbert Hofer demonstrates the level of frustration with the government.”
