A crucial closed-door meeting of China’s Communist Party has begun in Beijing, with top leader Xi Jinping seeking to entrench his supreme authority and reinforce the message that his anti-corruption campaign, which has seen more than one million cadres punished, is still going strong.
The plenum takes place amid rumours swirling in Beijing about power struggles and intense faction fights at the top of the party. Mr Xi will hope the top cadres will endorse him as “core leader” of the party, the first time such a position has been granted since Deng Xiaoping transferred power to Jiang Zemin 27 years ago.
“If Xi does not get confirmed as the core of the leadership, it will show that he is in trouble. I doubt that will happen. But it shows he is not in as much control and as powerful as he is often made out to appear,” said Steve Tsang, professor of contemporary Chinese studies at the University of Nottingham.
The plenum is the last big organisational set-piece before the 19th party congress, which is due around a year from now, and will decide the next generation of leadership while also kicking off Mr Xi’s second five-year term as party leader.
Retirement
Because of retirement rules, around 11 of the 25 members of the ruling Politburo, including five of the seven members on its supreme Standing Committee, will step down. Many believe Mr Xi will defy retirement rules and push for a third term beyond 2022, but this is no foregone conclusion and depends on whether his ally Wang Qishan, who has been instrumental in the anti-graft campaign, remains on the Politburo Standing Committee.
“If Xi cannot even keep Wang, then he is not in a good position to look for a third term,” said Mr Tsang.
Discipline is high on the agenda at the plenum, and over one million of the party’s 88 million members have been punished since 2013, according to party corruption watchdog, the Central Committee for Discipline Inspection, including ex-security chief Zhou Yongkang and former top general Guo Boxiong.
Many are watching the plenum to see how much progress has been made on promises to reform the economy. Analysts believe Mr Xi is trying to entrench his position so he can implement reforms and the rest of his agenda.
“Reform is what Xi wants. That it hasn’t happened suggests he hasn’t been able to get his way, despite making himself chairman of everything. Once Xi feels he is powerful enough he will make the changes he wants, whatever they really are,” said Mr Tsang. “If he can’t get into this position by the 19th Congress, it does not look like he will be able to do so by 2022,” he said.
