Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd called a September 7th general election today, barely six weeks after he toppled former leader Julia Gillard in a party-room vote, ending a turbulent three years in power for the minority Labor government.
Mr Rudd, who was dumped by his centre-left party in June 2010, has generated a spike in public support since he returned but conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott is still favourite to win power.
Mr Rudd’s Labor government could fall with the loss of just one of the 150 seats in parliament. His government currently holds 71 seats, the opposition 72, with one Green and six independent cross benchers.
Mr Abbott’s opposition has promised to scrap an unpopular 30 per cent tax on coal and iron ore mine profits, as well as a A$24.15/tonne carbon tax, if he wins power.
Mr Rudd returned as prime minister on June 26th after he toppled Ms Gillard, with a third of Ms Gillard’s cabinet also stepping down.
His party has been in power since late 2007 and helped Australia’s A$1.4 trillion economy avoid recession following the 2008 global financial crisis, aided by a prolonged mining boom fuelled by resources demand from China and India.
However, a budget update on Friday showed Australia’s economic growth is slowing as the mining investment boom ends, with unemployment rising and the manufacturing sector in particular shedding jobs.
Mr Rudd announced the election date in an email to his supporters, telling them “it’s on”, after visiting governor-general Quentin Bryce, who is Australia’ head of state, to dissolve the current parliament.
“We’ve got one hell of a fight on our hands,” Mr Rudd said.
The latest polls show Mr Rudd has lifted Labor’s support to give the government a chance of victory, although the respected Newspoll in late July still had Mr Rudd’s Labor Party trailing the opposition by four percentage points, 48 percent to 52 per cent.
Analyst Nick Economou said polls have not swung back to Mr Rudd enough to put Labor in a winning position, particularly in marginal seats in the outer suburbs of Australia’s major cities.
“Rudd has undertaken a risky strategy. The polls indicate that Labor has achieved the recovery of previously strong Labor voters. But I’m not sure that Labor’s message is resonating in key marginal seats,” Monash University’s Mr Economou told Reuters.
“I can’t see that he can win.”
Online bookmaker Sportsbet.com, which takes bets in each of the 150 electorates, said current projections had Mr Rudd winning 65 seats and Mr Abbott’s conservatives 82.
Ms Gillard introduced the price on carbon and the mining tax, and strengthened Australia’s defence ties with the US, although her government was hamstrung by a lack of a parliamentary majority and party infighting.
Mr Abbott has built a strong lead in opinion polls with his campaign to abolish the carbon tax, which he has blamed for pushing up electricity prices and for job losses.
He has also won support for his strong stance against asylum seekers who arrive in Australia by boat, with refugee policy set to play a leading role in the election.
Since returning to office, Mr Rudd has announced Australia’s toughest measures to deter asylum seekers, announcing anyone who arrives by boat will be sent to either Papua New Guinea or Nauru in the Pacific for processing and resettlement.
The election date means Mr Rudd will miss the G20 summit in St Petersburg on September 5th and 6th, even though Australia will take over as chair of the G20 for the coming year.
Reuters