It's water, water everywhere in the Strangford constituency these days. This might not be surprising as much of it is peninsula, with water on three sides. But it is not the water surrounding this beautiful countryside that bothers its voters. It is the bills they have been receiving lately for water used in their homes.
It is very much a unionist constituency where two of its six seats are held by the DUP, including local MP Iris Robinson, wife of DUP deputy leader Peter Robinson, one is held by the UKUP and former DUP MLA, George Ennis, two are UUP seats, and one is Alliance.
It is felt, however, that this might change on March 7th when the SDLP's Joe Foyle could take the seat currently held by the Alliance party's Kieran McCarthy. Another possibility being discussed is that the DUP's Simon Hamilton may take one of the current two UUP seats - possibly that of Angus Carson.
This is disputed by the constituency's other UUP MLA, David McNarry. Such has been the reaction he and his party colleague have been receiving in this election campaign so far he has concluded that, "after the past four years people now see we did the heavy lifting. We took all the pain. Now it has changed completely. Now they see it [ the UUP way] was the only way. I think we've been forgiven and people realise what we tried to do. They are going to give us another chance."
As with so many other Strangford candidates in this election David McNarry has been continually confronted about the water charges issue on the doorsteps. Between Monday and Wednesday of this week alone his office in Newtownards had received 800 representations about bills for domestic water.
He pointed out that there were a lot of two-person homes in the constituency, which paid as much for water as, say, a neighbouring house where there might be six people living. There were a lot of retired people on fixed incomes in the constituency who were particularly worried about the rates, he said. Education and water rates were the two big issues in Strangford in his opinion. Where education was concerned, people in the constituency believed as many as 50 per cent of their small rural schools could be closed under the terms of the recent Bain report. That was, particularly, "a local community issue", he said.
The Alliance party's Kieran McCarthy has been experiencing the same concerns on the doorsteps about water charges. "People are very worried about the water rates." The subject comes up "as soon as you speak to anybody", he said.
DUP candidate Simon Hamilton said that education and the water charges were also the foremost issues brought up on doorsteps on his canvasses in Strangford too, as opposed to constitutional issues for instance.
He saw this as an indication of the electorate's "overwhelming desire for devolution. But we must get it right. "If we don't get it right we will have direct rule for years," he said.
The SDLP's Joe Boyle has also met the same mixture of anger and anxiety over water charges on the doorsteps, but also confusion over water meters, the value of which some people were unsure of, he said.
Development was another major issue in the constituency, particularly around Carryduff in its northern part where the problems were of over development, he said.
The opposite was the case in its southern, rural parts where zealous application of planning regulation was making it difficult to get planning permission.
He too had encountered anxieties among the electorate over the Bain report and its implications for small rural schools. Its conclusion that schools of less than 105 pupils were unviable was "totally unacceptable" he said.
Health too, particularly the absence of an adequate ambulance service in his own Ards area, was a major issue, he said.
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND: This is one of the most unionist of constituencies in Northern Ireland, superseded only by East Belfast and North Down. As with both of those, it has no nationalist representative among its six outgoing MLAs.
However, unionism in Strangford is bedevilled by division. The DUP won three seats in the 2003 Assembly elections there with 47.9 per cent of the vote - the party's best result in Northern Ireland - but it has since lost a disaffected George Ennis to Robert McCartney's UKUP party. It is also said there is little love lost between the DUP's current two Strangford MLAs, Iris Robinson and Jim Shannon.
Many have wondered the wisdom of its strategy in putting forward four candidates this time around in a six-seater constituency. Some feel this could spread their first-preference vote so thin it might risk their even taking a third seat on March 7th.
The most likely beneficiary, should that happen, would be the UUP. With three candidates running, it has its own concerns. The retirement of John Taylor (Lord Kilclooney) is a major blow to its ambitions.
The UUP standard bearer in this election is David McNarry, who is not nearly as well known.
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND: This could be the election when nationalists - in the form of the SDLP's Joe Boyle - could make a breakthrough in Strangford. Boyle came very close in 2003 when he was beaten by Kieran McCarthy of the Alliance party, who hung on by 291 votes. In Boyle's favour this time is a much higher profile than he had in 2003, through work on the ground, but in particular since be was elected to Ards council in 2005. It is also felt that growth in the constituency's population at its northern end, towards an expanded Belfast, may benefit him and the UUP most. Against that ,the man whose seat he would be most likely to take - Kieran McCarthy of the Alliance party - has 20 years' service as a councillor in the constituency and two terms as a MLA. He also polled a respectable 9 per cent in the 2005 Westminster elections. Sinn Féin's Dermot Kennedy is standing again, but is not expected to secure more than about 1,000 votes.
WILD CARDS: There are 15 candidates for six seats and a third of those are independents or from smaller parties. They are George Ennis of the UKUP; David Gregg, Independent; Robert Little of the Conservative Party; Stephanie Sim of the Green Party; and Cedric Wilson, also Independent.
Indeed, one could very well include Sinn Féin's Dermot Kennedy in this category also. None are believed likely to have a seat in the next Assembly.
OUTGOING MEMBERS
Iris Robinson (DUP) 8,548 (22.9%)
*Lord Kilclooney (UUP) 5,658 (15.2%)
Jim Shannon (DUP) 4,703 (12.6%)
+George Ennis (DUP) 4,606 (12.4%)
David McNarry (UUP) 3,000 (8.1%)
Kieran McCarthy (Alliance) 2,741 (7.4%)
*retired
+now UKUP
Quota: 15 per cent
