CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:WITH THE tide going out for Fianna Fáil, could the party face a "Portillo moment" in Wicklow with the loss of Minister of State for European Affairs Dick Roche?
Long-time observers of politics in the constituency say it would have to be a very bad day for the party if the experienced Roche did not take the last position in this five-seater, where a record 24 candidates are contesting.
The dynamic has changed in Wicklow since 2007, when Roche topped the poll with more than 10,200 first-preference votes. His running mate Joe Behan left Fianna Fáil to become an Independent TD over 2008 budget cuts and will contest without the benefit – some might say hindrance – of the party machine this time.
Joining Roche again on the Fianna Fáil ticket is Cllr Pat Fitzgerald from Arklow, who also contested in 2007. This month Fitzgerald placed the blame for Fianna Fáil’s problems on erstwhile coalition partners the Green Party. “I’m glad to see the back of the Green Party. They have destroyed Fianna Fáil and we should never have gone into government with them,” he said.
With 14 of the 24 candidates not attached to a party on the ballot, Wicklow is tricky to call.
Fine Gael is fielding a strong three-man ticket, featuring two outgoing TDs. Party stalwart Billy Timmins is confident of returning to Leinster House.
On a good day, the party could take three seats, but in any event a second seat will go to Andrew Doyle, or to young contender Cllr Simon Harris.
Labour’s sole deputy in Wicklow, Liz McManus, is stepping down, and two councillors, Conal Kavanagh and Tom Fortune, and a former councillor, Anne Ferris, are vying to replace her.
Sinn Féin’s Cllr John Brady, who polled more than 3,200 first preferences in 2007, is running again.
Niall Byrne will contest for the Green Party in the constituency where Déirdre de Búrca did not make the grade for the 30th Dáil.
Recently announced Independents include former Labour candidate Cllr Nicky Kelly and economist Stephen Donnelly. A former Green, Cllr Pat Kavanagh, is contesting under the Fís Nua banner, with Gerry Kinsella.
Fís Nua, a new movement, has pledged to remove corruption from public and political life.
WICKLOW 5 SEATS:
OUTGOING TDs:
Dick Roche (FF), Billy Timmins (FG), Andrew Doyle (FG), Liz McManus (Lab), Joe Behan (Ind).
CANDIDATES:
Dick Roche (FF), Pat Fitzgerald (FF), Billy Timmins (FG), Andrew Doyle (FG), Simon Harris (FG), Tom Fortune (Lab), Conal
Kavanagh (Lab), Anne Ferris (Lab), Niall Byrne (GP), John Brady (SF), Joe Behan (Ind), Nicky Kelly (Ind), Stephen Donnelly (Ind),
Pat Kavanagh (Fís Nua), Gerry Kinsella (Fís Nua), Peter Dempsey (Ind), Thomas Clarke (Ind), Michael Mulvihill (Ind), Eugene Finnegan (Ind),
Donal Kiernan (Ind), Jim Tallon (Ind), Kevin Carroll (Ind), Anthony Fitzgerald (Ind), Charlie Keddy (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES:
Unemployment is probably the key local issue in Wicklow, which contains a mix of commuter belt voters and rural-dwelling constituents. However, canvassers report national issues cropping up on the doorsteps more often than not, with widespread anger about the banking situation, social welfare cuts and politicians' pensions.
VERDICT:FF 1, FG 2, Lab 1, Ind 1
