Three months before the June deadline for agreement on the constitutional treaty, many European politicians and commentators are already behaving as if the deal is done, writes Denis Staunton in Brussels
"Back from the dead", declared one newspaper headline on Saturday while the President of the European Parliament, Mr Pat Cox, announced that he was proud to be Irish.
Last week's decision to seek an early agreement is a clear sign that EU leaders are ready to negotiate, and a deal on June 18th is very likely. It is not to diminish the Irish presidency's achievement in reviving talks, however, to point out that failure remains a possibility.
The most dramatic progress in recent weeks centred on the dispute over voting in the Council of Ministers, with Spain and Poland dropping their opposition to a new system based on population size. The details of a compromise have yet to be worked out but the Taoiseach is unlikely to have called for a renewal of formal negotiations without a clear idea of its shape.
Most diplomats have long been convinced that once the voting issue is resolved, governments will become more willing to compromise on other outstanding issues. Such issues include the size and composition of the Commission, the minimum number of MEPs elected by each country, and a reference to the Christian tradition in the treaty's preamble.
The most difficult compromises for many governments could be on proposals to abolish the national veto in some sensitive policy areas. Britain, for example, wants to retain the veto on tax issues, social security and criminal law matters.
In declaring his support for an early agreement on the treaty last week, Mr Tony Blair promised that Britain's "red lines" would not be violated. Other governments have made similar commitments and the Irish presidency faces a difficult task in accommodating everyone's sensitivities.
The Italian presidency sought to address Ireland's and Britain's difficulties over criminal law by introducing an "emergency brake" that would allow any country to block a measure that infringed "fundamental principles of its legal system".
Such a mechanism could well satisfy British and Irish concerns but risks antagonising countries that want more European integration.
In a speech to the Institute of European Affairs in Dublin yesterday, Mr John Bruton articulated the argument against making an exception for countries with a common law system.
"\ would allow just one country, out of 25, to block a criminal law proposal, on which all 24 other countries were agreed, simply by making an uncorroborated, and possibly entirely bogus, claim that it would infringe fundamental principles of its legal system. This emergency brake would slow European law-making on cross-border crime to a snail's pace," he said.
Mr Bruton, who served on the praesidium of the convention that drafted the constitutional treaty, suggested it was time to start a debate in Ireland about the content of the treaty. The treaty's opponents have been seeking such a debate for months, arguing that Europe is in danger of sleepwalking its way into a constitution that will change radically the entire nature of the EU.
Mr Bruton yesterday dismissed the claim that the treaty would endow the EU with the most important attributes of a state, pointing out that the Union would not be able to raise its own taxes or establish an army. He made much of the enhanced role of national parliaments in scrutinising EU legislation, although he acknowledged that the Commission could, if it chose, ignore any objections the parliaments raise.
The constitutional treaty will involve sharing more sovereignty between national governments and the EU, with national vetoes facing abolition in many policy areas.
Some EU institutions will become more powerful, with the appointment of an EU president and foreign minister.
The treaty's supporters argue that such changes will enhance the Union's capacity to act in the interests of all European citizens while allowing national governments to retain control over key policy areas.
Its opponents maintain that the treaty will herald the emergence of a European superstate and rob democratically elected national governments of control over important areas of policy.
The debate Mr Bruton has called for is likely to gain momentum throughout Europe between now and June and its course could have a powerful effect on EU leaders when they meet in Brussels to negotiate a final deal on the treaty.
