ANALYSIS:Cowen's show of unity with the man tipped as his most likely successor was designed to show he has his Ministers' confidence
TAOISEACH BRIAN Cowen moved decisively yesterday to try to get a grip on the controversy that has dogged his leadership for the past week by calling a joint press conference with his Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan on the steps of Government Buildings.
The show of unity with the man tipped by many in the media as his likely successor was designed to reassure Cowen’s TDs and the country that he has the confidence of his fellow Ministers.
Emphatically ruling out any prospect of resignation, Cowen spoke in the kind of crisp and direct language his supporters have been crying out for since he took office.
“I am not a Taoiseach on probation. I am the elected leader of our party. I have the full support of my Government colleagues. We have a job of work to do. Serious challenges face our country, and everyone in our party and the membership around the country wants us to get on with that,” he told journalists.
He also pointedly referred to the Coalition’s increasingly precarious position in the Dáil.
“We have good colleagues in Government, we have Independent support and we have a working majority in the Dáil. So let’s get on with that.”
This was an allusion to the intervention of Independent Tipperary TD Michael Lowry, who made it clear yesterday that neither he nor Jackie Healy-Rae, who have backed the Coalition since its formation, would be prepared to vote for a new Fianna Fáil leader in a Dáil vote.
Lowry’s intervention strengthened Cowen’s hand as it focused the minds of Fianna Fáil TDs on the near inevitability of a general election before Christmas if they decided to change leaders at this stage.
Even before the Taoiseach and Lenihan put on their show of unity it was becoming clear that none of Cowen’s Cabinet colleagues was planning to challenge him, whatever their own long-term ambitions.
Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan, whose comments on Sunday were interpreted by some as a coded challenge, moved to clarify the issue by repeating that there was no vacancy and he was continuing to give Cowen his full support. Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern also gave an emphatic endorsement to Cowen, as did Batt O’Keeffe, a long time friend and ally of Cowen.
It has become clear in recent days that if Cowen did decide to step down there would be a number of candidates to succeed him. Brian Lenihan, Micheál Martin, Dermot Ahern and Mary Hanafin are all prospective leaders, and a contest would almost inevitably ensue if any vacancy arose. That is another factor in persuading many TDs to leave well enough alone.
However, not everybody in the parliamentary party is convinced that Cowen is their only option or that an early general election is the worst thing that could happen.
Just as Ministers began to rally around the Taoiseach in earnest yesterday morning, former party chief whip Tom Kitt raised his head above the parapet and called for a meeting of the parliamentary party to discuss the leadership.
Later in the day Dublin North TD Michael Kennedy also called for the issue to be put to the parliamentary party.
While Kitt’s opposition can be attributed to the fact that Cowen dropped him as chief whip, Kennedy has been a strong defender of the Government’s budgetary measures in Dáil debates and his intervention was more ominous.
Still, as long as the Cabinet Ministers continue to support Cowen, his position is relatively secure. A motion of no confidence in his leadership would have to be signed by 18 TDs and there is still no indication of that many of them being willing to initiate a heave.
When Kilkenny TD John McGuinness spoke out against the leader earlier in the year he was left on his own. So far the addition of Kitt and Kennedy has only brought the number of open dissidents up to three.
Even if Cowen’s opponents managed to get the signatures of 18 TDs required for a debate of confidence at the parliamentary party, most TDs would think very carefully before removing the leader, particularly as it would in all likelihood trigger a general election. At present that appears to be the trump card in the Taoiseach’s hand.
However, outside events could change the picture very quickly.
The worrying rise in the cost of Irish borrowing, the problems with the banks and the prospect of the budget having to be even tougher than originally planned are all factors that could feed into political instability.
Bad opinion poll ratings would also keep the focus on Cowen’s leadership, but for the moment at least the threat has receded.
