The threat of a flu pandemic is now closer than at any time since 1968, a conference on major disaster planning was told yesterday.
Gavin Maguire, assistant national health director with responsibility for emergency management at the Health Service Executive, said that Ireland compared well to other EU countries in terms of its preparedness for such an event.
He compared a pandemic to a volcano, saying that it could be overdue an eruption but it didn't mean it would erupt today or tomorrow.
Flu pandemics are global epidemics of a newly emerged strain of flu. There were three in the last century. The most recent, Hong Kong Flu in 1968, was a milder form, Mr Maguire said, but it was not possible to tell if a new pandemic would be mild or not.
The national plan to deal with a pandemic envisages a worst-case scenario. It anticipates the death of up to 15,000 people countrywide, with 25 per cent of the population affected by the first wave of the illness.
"All of the services that allow life to continue and we take for granted would be under threat," he said. "Absenteeism would be significant. If schools close large numbers of carers would stay at home, which would have a further impact on services. Massive redeployment of staff would be required in the health services."
It would take six months to develop a pandemic vaccine, he said, by which time the first wave would have travelled throughout the world. Some 200,000 essential workers in Ireland would be given the H5N1 (avian flu) vaccine, which is already in stock, in the hope that it would give them some immunity. And 1.8 million anti-viral drugs will also be stockpiled by the end of 2007 to help combat any outbreak.
Some 250 healthcare professionals are involved in discussions with the national steering group on the HSE influenza pandemic plan, as well as representatives of other services, including gardaí, fire services and gravediggers. The plan also includes a helpline to advise the public and to give them the support needed to stay in their own homes rather than visit GPs or hospitals, Mr Maguire outlined.
"If people behave as they normally behave hospitals and GPs will be overwhelmed," he said. "There will be huge responsibilities on individuals to behave in a responsible fashion. People will be asked to contact the helpline and they will be directed to hospital, a GP or another service."
He said, however, that there is no telephone company in Ireland that could support such a system at present, but they are in discussion with various private companies in relation to the issues.
The conference, organised by the Irish Health Services Accreditation Board, also discussed lessons learned from disasters in other parts of the world.
Speaking at the launch, Minister for Health Mary Harney congratulated the organisers for arranging the conference.
"In my profession we don't pay enough attention to emergency and disaster planning," she said.
