EUROPEAN DIARY: As the European Commission prepares for its summer break later this month, the talk in Brussels is turning to the future of the 20 commissioners themselves.
Romano Prodi and his team have more than a year left in office but speculation is growing about the composition of the 25-member Commission that takes over in Autumn 2004.
Despite suggestions that Mr Prodi would be willing to serve a second term, it is unlikely that he will be given an opportunity. The former Italian prime minister can argue that he has presided successfully over the introduction of the euro, the EU's enlargement and an overhaul of the Union's constitutional structure. But most EU leaders believe that he has failed to live up to the great expectations they invested in him when he took over from Jacques Santer in 1999.
The problem is that, whatever you think of Mr Prodi, there is no obvious candidate to succeed him. Although the EU treaties have little to say about the qualifications for the job, recent convention demands that the Commission president should have served as prime minister of an EU member-state.
Among the 15 serving EU leaders, Luxembourg's prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, is tipped most widely to succeed Mr Prodi. Mr Juncker, who is also his country's finance minister, speaks English, French and German and understands the European system exceptionally well.
As a conservative politician from a small country, he has two further advantages in following a left-of-centre Italian. Mr Juncker's only problem is that Mr Santer's unhappy experience (his entire commission resigned amid allegations of cronyism) could deter the leaders from choosing so soon another representative from Luxembourg.
If the leaders chose to break with recent tradition and appoint a president from within the present commission, the most likely candidate is the justice and home affairs commissioner, Antonio Vitorino. The diminutive Portuguese is the favourite to succeed Lord Robertson as secretary general of NATO but has yet to declare an interest.
Mr Vitorino's name is also mentioned in connection with the new post of EU foreign minister, who will merge the roles now enjoyed by Chris Patten and Javier Solana. The hot favourite for that job is Germany's foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, who has made no secret of his desire for it.
Mr Fischer is not, however, universally popular and some EU leaders might feel more comfortable with Mr Vitorino or with Mr Solana adopting an enlarged role.
Ireland's commissioner, David Byrne, has yet to indicate if he will be available to serve a second term but it is a safe bet to assume that he will agree to stay in Brussels if the Taoiseach asks him. Mr Byrne has handled his unwieldy portfolio skilfully, emerging unharmed from the BSE and foot-and-mouth crises and pushing through important legislation, most recently on the labelling of genetically modified food.
As a successful commissioner entering a second term, Mr Byrne could expect to be appointed to a relatively high-profile portfolio, despite keen competition from - among others - representatives of the 10 new member-states.
If the Taoiseach decides to nominate a new commissioner, it is likely to be in the context of a major cabinet reshuffle. Most speculation centres on the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, whose departure from the Government would allow Mr Ahern to give his team a thorough shake-up.
Mr McCreevy's noisy defiance of the EU's budget policy guidelines two years ago could, however, make it impossible for him to win one of the Commission's important economic portfolios. Much of the Commission's job involves pressuring member-states to abide by the rules and his history of defiance could undermine his credibility in such a role.
The increasingly important justice and home affairs portfolio is effectively ruled out by Ireland's opt-out from the Schengen border agreement.
The Tanaiste, Ms Harney, could face similar objections, although her role in the budget policy row was less direct and her profile as one of relatively few women to occupy high office in Europe would be an advantage. Middle-ranking ministers such as Seamus Brennan or Dermot Ahern could make effective commissioners but would be unlikely to be given major posts.
The Taoiseach could go outside the Government to appoint the president of the European Parliament, Pat Cox, whose term ends next year. Mr Cox would probably secure a major portfolio and enjoy a high profile in the European media. But his appointment could cause resentment within Fianna Fáil, to say nothing of his former friends in the Progressive Democrats.
