Support for Fine Gael has surged in Mayo, according to a TG4/MRBI poll. The poll, results of which were released on TG4 last night, shows a 7 percentage point increase in first preferences for Fine Gael among 400 voters sampled, and an 8-point drop in support for Fianna Fail.
Overall, the poll shows Fianna Fail's first-preference share sliding to 35 per cent, from 43 per cent in 1997. Fine Gael emerges with 56 per cent, up 7 percentage points.
The survey finds the parties could return the same share of seats as in 1997 - three for Fine Gael and two for Fianna Fail. However, the transfer of Fianna Fail votes could determine who takes the fifth seat, according to the MRBI analysis.
It was conducted between January 4th and 12th, the same week that almost 220 jobs were lost when the Henniges Elastomers car components factory closed in Ballina.
The results may reflect the downturn in employment in the north of the county, and are a boost for Fine Gael, given the difficulties the party experienced in the constituency last autumn when the entire local executive resigned over cancellation of a selection convention.
The Fine Gael TD, Mr Michael Ring, topped the opinion poll with a 22 per cent share of first preferences (excluding undecided) among voters sampled. This represents a 6-point gain on his 1997 performance.
His party colleague, Mr Jim Higgins, registered an 8-point increase - to 19 per cent - from his 1997 standing, and former minister, Mr Enda Kenny, recorded 11 per cent of first preferences, compared to 14 per cent in 1997.
However, junior Fianna Fianna Fail health minister, Dr Tom Moffatt, appears to be under pressure from other candidates running on the Government ticket.
Dr Moffat's first preference vote was down to 6 per cent - from 9 per cent in 1997 - and lags behind Mr John Carty on 8 per cent and Mr Frank Chambers on 7 per cent. Ms Beverly Cooper-Flynn of Fianna Fail held firm in the poll results on her 14 per cent showing in 1997.
Independent candidate Mr Richard Finn, who ran in 1997, increased his first-preference share to 5 per cent, against 3 per cent during the election. Labour's Mr Michael Kilcoyne, the Green Party's Ms Ann Crowley , Sinn Fein's Mr Vincent Wood and Independent Mr Gerry Ginty each recorded 1 per cent.
The MRBI analysis notes that the second Fianna Fail seat is "wide open", given the close running between Mr Carthy, Mr Chambers and Dr Moffatt.
It notes from the poll indicators that Ms Cooper-Flynn's transfers are going to all three colleagues, in the ratio of Carthy 1, Chambers 2 and Moffatt 2, while Mr Carthy is transferring to Mr Chambers. Meanwhile, Dr Moffatt is transferring almost exclusively to Ms Cooper-Flynn - who is unlikely to require those votes.
In a separate question on the survival prospects for the Irish language, the survey shows 57 per cent of Gaeltacht voters in Mayo predict the Irish-speaking community will survive for more than 50 years, while 33 per cent forecast less than 50.
The TG4/MRBI poll on the Galway West constituency published last November showed 37 per cent of those polled predicted a life of more than half a century for the Gaeltacht as an Irish-speaking community, and 63 per cent opted for less than that.
