Strength of unionist vote will be crucial to overall election result

Constituency Profile: Ballymena is known as the buckle of Northern Ireland's Bible Belt

Constituency Profile: Ballymena is known as the buckle of Northern Ireland's Bible Belt. This is the stronghold of the Rev Ian Paisley, an evangelical religious and political leader competing in a constituency where both forms of Protestant fundamentalism run deep.

Dr Paisley has lost considerable physical weight, but his political weight is undiminished in this constituency. There is a fierce North Antrim Protestant fervour for their MP.

He's been there since 1970 and will be its chief representative as long as he wants and his Saviour allows.

The constituency takes in Ballymena, Ballymoney and Ballycastle and the beautiful Glens of Antrim running up to Cushendall and Cushendun.

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North Antrim has 70,493 voters, almost 3,000 less than could vote in the Assembly elections five years ago, but it is still the constituency with the largest electorate in Northern Ireland.

In the 2001 Westminster election, one in two voters marked their X for the DUP leader. That's 50 per cent of the vote, more than three quotas. Yet, in previous local government and Assembly elections, the DUP as a party rather than a personality did not poll as strongly.

But it polled well and should poll sufficiently this time to ensure the election of Dr Paisley, his son, and new DUP candidate Mr Mervyn Storey.

Mr Gardiner Kane, former DUP MLA, who has fallen out with his party, may eat into some of that DUP vote, although he is unlikely to cause real damage.

Outgoing MLA the Rev Robert Coulter, from Ballymena, should take a seat for the Ulster Unionists. That leaves just two seats - for which one Ulster Unionist, one Sinn Féiner and two SDLP candidates are competing.

Between the SDLP and Sinn Féin there are just about two nationalist quotas in North Antrim.

To take that second seat would be a considerable achievement in a constituency where the outgoing SDLP Assembly member, Dr Seán Farren, has been the sole nationalist representative.

Dr Farren, who is running with Mr Declan O'Loan - husband of the high-profile Police Ombudsman, Nuala O'Loan - reckons that by careful vote management the SDLP win two seats.

Equally, Mr Philip McGuigan, of Sinn Féin, whose profile also has been improving in North Antrim, is battling for a republican gain.

The second Ulster Unionist candidate, Mr James Currie, believes that as the SDLP and Sinn Féin battle it out he will squeeze through and retain a second seat for the UUP.

The apathy factor is crucial here. If unionists stay at home, then either the SDLP or Sinn Féin could take that additional seat. If they come out, Mr Currie could be safe.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times