THE UN climate change summit in Copenhagen next month has been given another boost by China’s announcement yesterday that it now plans to put a lid of sorts on its growing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
This followed the news that US president Barack Obama would fly in for a round of talks on the third day of the UN conference – long before the hard bargaining gets under way.
He will be on his way to Oslo, to receive the Nobel Peace Prize on December 10th.
China’s state council (cabinet) promised to reduce the “carbon intensity” of its still growing economy by up to 45 per cent by 2020, saying this was now a “binding goal”, according to an announcement yesterday by the official Xinhua news agency.
Prime minister Wen Jiabao, who recently met Mr Obama in Beijing for talks on climate change, trade and other issues, clearly intends to put forward this new target as a token of China’s good faith when he attends the final few days of the Copenhagen conference.
Analysts quickly pointed out that the “carbon intensity” goal would not mean an absolute reduction in China’s greenhouse gas emissions; rather, what it would mean is they would increase at a significantly slower rate than under a “business as usual” scenario.
Allan Zhang, head of carbon markets in Beijing with Pricewaterhouse Coopers, said he was “sure” the 40-45 per cent reduction in carbon intensity would “put more pressure on the US side. It is definitely a significant move, but to achieve it will be quite a challenge.”
Pan Jiahua, climate policy expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, conceded that the goal would be difficult to achieve and would involve replacing old coal-fired power plants and giving financial subsidies for cleaner cars and power-saving appliances.
Given China’s huge economy, Kim Carstensen, of the World Wildlife Fund, said decoupling economic growth from emissions was “one of the most important factors that will determine whether the world can get on course to keep temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius”. Greenpeace also welcomed China’s announcement, which came just 10 days ahead of the Copenhagen summit.
Describing the move as a “significant announcement at a very important point in time”, Ailun Yang of Greenpeace, China said it was another challenge to the developed world, “particularly the US, which has just announced an inadequate emissions reduction target of only 4-5 per cent by 2020”.
Figures being mentioned by the US side focus on a 17 per cent cut in its emissions by 2020, based on 2005 levels. But since the latter were much higher than in 1990 – the usual base year for calculations – the effective reduction could be as low as 3 per cent.
The UN’s climate scientists, in their most recent (2007) report, said developed countries would need to cut emissions by 25 to 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, and by 80-95 per cent by 2050, if the world was to have any chance of averting “dangerous” climate change.
However, Mr Obama’s willingness to come to Copenhagen has been welcomed by Raymond Offenheiser, of Oxfam America. He said the announcement “flies in the face of predictions of failure in Copenhagen well before the conference even begins”. “President Obama’s personal appearance and commitment to action can bring the necessary momentum to deliver a deal,” he added.
Yvo de Boer, the UN’s top climate official, said the US commitment to specific, mid-term emission cut targets and China’s commitment to specific action on energy efficiency “can unlock two of the last doors to a comprehensive agreement” in Copenhagen.
