Sprinkling enough `magic dust' to cloud inequalities

There is a common theme to the three discussions which will dominate the EU summit here in Luxembourg over the next two days: …

There is a common theme to the three discussions which will dominate the EU summit here in Luxembourg over the next two days: each is about how much one or more countries is cherished, or, to be more precise, seen to be cherished, by the membership of this exclusive club.

The buzz-word is "inclusiveness" and the challenge for leaders is to lay down enough smoke - "magic dust", someone called it the other day - to persuade punters that all are equal, while in reality ensuring that some are most definitely more equal than others.

Britain, on the verge of its presidency, will unsuccessfully press its claim for inclusion in the deliberations of the Euro-X committee of euro participants.

Denmark and Sweden will press for a formula for EU accession negotiations next year which will at least appear to embrace the five central and eastern European states left off the Commission's invitation list - Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania.

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And 14 member-states, some less than enthusiastic, will try to persuade Greece to allow the Union to hold out the hand of friendship to Turkey lest the forces of fundamentalism drive this strategic ally into the arms of another.

In the first and latter cases Ireland is strongly with the includers, while it accepts the Commission's rationale for phased accession talks. Sure, aren't six new claimants in the structural fund queue enough to be going on with?

The deft political touch that Mr Blair showed with the British electorate has let him down in Europe. He wants too much, too fast. He insisted that he will be part of Europe's leadership, an ambition he is very capable of achieving in the medium term if only because of the sell-by dates on not a few of Europe's elder statesmen. But he followed it with a demand that could not be met.

If he did not commit himself to euro membership from the start he could scarcely expect to be part of its inner circle. And to raise expectations on the issue was foolish.

France's Minister for Finance, Mr Dominique Strauss-Kahn, put it bluntly: "If you're not part of the wedding, you can't expect to be in the marriage bed."

Luxembourg's EU Council President, Mr Jean-Claude Juncker, told MEPs this week that the "outs" could not prevent the "ins" from meeting informally if they wanted to, a scenario that has already provoked huffy British suggestions that if they do so it should not be in common community premises.

But it's not quite that simple. The treaty is full of talk of inclusiveness. And what of those

who, like Britain, do not plan to join the euro from the start but will commit themselves, formally or informally, to shadowing the new currency closely, some even as part of the ERM? Have they not as much of an interest in the policy that steers the currency as the participants?

In the end, moreover, the treaty will not allow the Council of Finance Ministers, Ecofin, to be undermined. Accommodation of the two positions must be found by creating the most informal of structures for the euro "ins" whose brief will be exceedingly limited - perhaps confined to discussions but not decisions on issues such as mutual exchange rate policy, or the rate at which new members will sign up to the euro.

France's ambition to create an inner core to guide the broad economic policy of the Union is simply not realisable institutionally, any more than Britain's insistence on a universal presence. A formula will be found to allow both to claim success in restraining the other.

And similarly with the accession negotiations. Few doubt that what will prevail is the Commission's proposal to start negotiations next April with the "5+1", Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Estonia and Cyprus.

The excluded Baltic republics are particularly upset and will lobby furiously. But they will be placated with a promise that the process is, yes, you've guessed it, truly "inclusive" despite its "differentiation". To suggest anything else, the President of the Commission, Mr Jacques Santer, told journalists on Wednesday in reproving tones, is unworthy and unfair.

But leaders will put off to another day key discussion on the reform of the Union's internal policies needed to pay for enlargement. The draft summit conclusions simply list each national position.

While Turkey is likely to dominate the foreign policy debate, leaders are also likely to hear reports on the situation in the Middle East - diplomats are speaking in an upbeat way of a serious hardening of the US attitude to Israeli intransigence. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, may also get the chance to report on the situation in Algeria to colleagues.

Attempts to bring Turkey into an outer core of applicant states by involving it in a broad preaccession European Conference are still being stymied by Greece.

But the Luxembourg draft conclusions for the summit do suggest a formula for resolving the dispute - strengthening links with Turkey "depends", the document suggests, on the latter's willingness to meet specific conditions.

These, Mr Santer made clear on Wednesday, include good neighbourly relations with Greece through the reference of territorial disputes to international arbitration, support by Ankara for a UN-brokered settlement in Cyprus, and improvements in human rights.

The summit could thus agree to a conditional Turkish participation in a European Conference while at the same time endorsing the strongest statement yet of the EU's long-term ambition to see Turkey in its fold.

Magic dust.

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth is former Europe editor of The Irish Times