Soild Ross expected to see off rivals in latest Derry siege

EAST DERRY or East Londonderry? Pick either one and you are immediately labelled

EAST DERRY or East Londonderry? Pick either one and you are immediately labelled. President Clinton, in an attempt at impartiality, tried to dodge the problem but failed.

He visited "Derry City" but spoke of "Co Londonderry". Didn't work. It's one of the great inescapable marks of identity, like the way Catholics generally say haitch and Protestants, aitch.

You can't have the best of both worlds on this one. The Alliance candidate, Yvonne Boyle, like President Clinton, would disagree. She will as happily use "East Derry" as "East Londonderry", as befits any centrist politician. "East Londonderry" is the official name, according to parliamentary documents.

The SDLP and Sinn Fein candidates, Arthur Doherty and former republican prisoner Malachy O'Kane respectively, favour "East Derry" of course.

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Not that it will make much difference in this constituency. Call it what you like, because after May 1st it should be back safely in unionist haids.

Which unionist's hands, though, is of some interest. The Ulster Unionist Party candidate William Ross has held the constituency since it was created in 1983, and for the nine years before that he was the member for the then constituency of Londonderry.

The Democratic Unionist Party is challenging him this time, but it would be an extraordinary achievement if it managed to dislodge Mr Ross. The MP is rooted in the constituency. His family has farmed the same acres near Dungiven for more than 250 years. He has stated in the past that unless "he annoyed his electors enormously he could remain in the seat until he dies of old age".

This was more a statement of fact than pride.

Nonetheless, the DUP may have an ace up its sleeve in the form of Gregory Campbell, who has had the dubious distinction of being the party's regular contestant against John Hume in neighbouring Foyle.

Mr Campbell has now moved eastwards from Derry City to have a crack at Mr Ross's safe seat. His prospects are better than in Foyle, but it will be an uphill struggle. Yet he believes that he can instil an energy and dynamism that the solid Mr Ross lacks.

In the last Westminster election when the DUP did not stand, Ross took the seat with more than 30,000 votes, 19,000 votes ahead of the SDLP's Mr Doherty. But in the Forum elections the UUP vote in East Derry - which was reduced by more than 16,000 votes because of redrawn boundaries - was down to 11,386 votes 2,618 votes ahead of the DUP.

It is a margin that could be made up by the DUP, particularly with a fairly high profile candidate like Mr Campbell. It also raises the possibility of the SDLP's Mr Doherty stealing the seat.

The SDLP, with Mr Doherty as its front runner, polled 7,451 votes in the Forum election against 3,413 for Sinn Fein. If, in the event of a unionist split, nationalists voted tactically for Mr Doherty, there is a very outside chance of the SDLP achieving a remarkable victory.

But this really is in the realm of exotic psephology.

Mr Ross, not to mention political observers throughout the North, would be astonished if a majority of the people of Coleraine, Limavady and the small towns and country areas of the constituency voted for anyone other than the sitting candidate.

After all, he is one of their own. There was a Ross behind Derry's walls in 1689 and it was Jane Ross from Limavady who "transcribed the Londonderry Air" - the pair of them, according to William Ross, ancestors of the family.

Mr Ross has good reason to be "totally confident" unionists won't abandon such a well planted son of the county.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times