Poll result a blow to Fine Gael election confidence

The Labour Party's decision to keep open its coalition options has been vindicated by Fine Gael's poor opinion poll showing, …

The Labour Party's decision to keep open its coalition options has been vindicated by Fine Gael's poor opinion poll showing, the Labour Party deputy leader, Mr Brendan Howlin, has said.

Yesterday's Irish Times/MRBI poll, which gave Fine Gael just 21 per cent of the adjusted first preference votes, has badly dented the confidence of some within Fine Gael. However, though he admitted some disappointment, the leader of Fine Gael, Mr Michael Noonan, predicted that the outcome of the general election would still be "a cliffhanger".

The lacklustre Fine Gael performance will increase the belief that Labour could come under pressure to agree a coalition deal with Fianna Fáil following the election.

About Mr Noonan's poor showing in the leadership rankings, Mr Howlin commented: "Well, he hasn't exactly taken off, has he?"

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The outcome supported Labour's decision last year at its national conference in Cork not to bar any possible coalition option for the Labour leader, Mr Quinn, he said.

Mr Noonan expected a lift after the heave against John Bruton, he said. That has not materialised. However, he said the fortunes of all political parties would change significantly between now and the election: "If a week is a long time in politics, three months is an eternity."

The Green Party leader, Mr Trevor Sargent, said his party's 8 per cent result in Dublin offered confidence that his Dublin South East colleague, Mr John Gormley, can see off Mr Michael McDowell's challenge.

"Not just that, we also hope that it offers a real chance for Eamon Ryan to take a seat for us in Dublin South and Ciaran Cuffe in Dún Laoghaire," he claimed.

The Tánaiste and leader of the PDs, Ms Mary Harney, said she did not believe Sinn Féin, "a party still associated with the provisional IRA", would gain significantly in the general election.

Commenting on the Irish Times/MRBI poll, and on predictions by Sinn Féin that it will gain a number of seats, Ms Harney said she would be "surprised" and disappointed if a substantial number of people in Ireland would vote Sinn Féin. And she does not believe this will be the case.

The Tánaiste was speaking in Killarney, Co Kerry. On her own ratings she was happy enough at 54 per cent to have remained within the 50 to 60 per cent bracket and she was still higher than the main opposition leaders. "If it was an exam you would be quite happy with the outcome," she said.

However, she admitted her rating was affected by what are known as "flavour of the month issues" and last week's controversy over her use of an Air Corps aircraft to open a friend's off-licence in Co Leitrim clearly did affect her ratings.

The election was under way and the decision of both former IFA president Mr Tom Parlon and the Attorney General Mr Michael McDowell to run for the PDs was "a major boost" for the party. Data for the poll were collected before these announcements.

The figures achieved by Sinn Féin in the poll showed that "negative campaigning" against republicans had not worked, the party's sole member of Dáil Éireann, Mr Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin, said last night.

The poll showed a level of 8 per cent support for Sinn Féin and a 56 per cent satisfaction rating for its leader, Mr Gerry Adams, who came second after the Taoiseach. Mr Ó Caoláin said he was hopeful Sinn Féin would return with "at least three TDs".

He said he was "not at all surprised" at the high satisfaction rating for Mr Adams.

Speaking on RTÉ yesterday Fine Gael's Mr Noonan conceded there were "things in the poll" he was "disappointed" with. However, he claimed on News at One that his campaigning against the Government had brought its satisfaction rating down 10 percentage points since last May.

"I think I can get them down another 10 points between now and the election and then they are in trouble," he said.

Mark Hennessy

Mark Hennessy

Mark Hennessy is Ireland and Britain Editor with The Irish Times