LABOUR PARTY candidate Michael D Higgins is leading the presidential election race but Independent Seán Gallagher has surged into second place, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
The poll also shows Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness is close behind the leaders in third place but support for Senator David Norris and Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael has plummeted over the past two months.
Mr Mitchell is now in second last place ahead of Dana Rosemary Scallon who entered the contest at the last minute.
When people were asked who they would vote for if the presidential election was held tomorrow, the figures (when undecided voters were excluded) compared to the last Irish Times poll on July 19th were: Michael D Higgins 23 per cent (up five points); Seán Gallagher 20 per cent (up seven points); Martin McGuinness 19 per cent (not in last poll); Mary Davis 12 per cent (no change); David Norris 11 per cent (down 14 points); Gay Mitchell 9 per cent (down 12 points); and Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 per cent (not in last poll).
The poll was on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
With three weeks to go before the election, the poll indicates that unless there is some dramatic development it will come down to a battle between Mr Higgins, Mr Gallagher and Mr McGuinness with the issue being decided on transfers.
Mr Higgins does best when it comes to attracting second preferences, followed by Mr Gallagher while Mr McGuinness does worst of the leading candidates.
Mr Higgins’s support is evenly spread across all social categories and across all regions of the country. He is weakest among the youngest 18 to 24 age group but strongest among the over-65s.
By contrast, Mr McGuinness gets the backing of more than 70 per cent of Sinn Féin voters. He does almost three times better among male voters than among women and among male voters he leads all other candidates. His strongest support comes from working class and younger voters and he is weakest among middle class and older voters.
In regional terms, Mr McGuinness is strongest in Munster and Connacht-Ulster and weakest in Dublin.
The poll suggests the Sinn Féin candidate is not doing particularly well among Fianna Fáil voters. He attracts just 13 per cent of that party’s voters despite the fact that there is no Fianna Fáil candidate.
Seán Gallagher has emerged as the candidate most attractive to Fianna Fáil voters but that only partly accounts for his move into second place as he is picking up a reasonable amount of support across the political spectrum.
In class terms, Mr Gallagher is almost equally strong across all groups but he is strongest among the best-off voters. He does very well among young and middle-aged voters but is weakest among the older voters.
The steep drop in support for David Norris and Gay Mitchell are the other main points in the poll.
Mr Norris withdrew from the contest after the July poll following the controversy over the letters he sent to the Israeli authorities on behalf of his former partner. He has lost more than half of his earlier support and is facing an uphill battle to get back among the contenders.
Mr Mitchell has also seen a huge drop in support since July and he would appear to be out of the race unless something remarkable happens over the next three weeks.
He is only getting 21 per cent of the Fine Gael vote and is not even the favoured candidate of his own party’s supporters. That position is taken by Mr Higgins.
If Mr Mitchell only wins 9 per cent on polling day it will be a disaster for Fine Gael after its recent general election triumph.
Mary Davis is on 12 per cent, precisely the same level of support as she had in July. The entry of the new candidates has had no impact on her campaign. Her support is equally spread across the regions but is higher among the older voters than among younger.
Ms Scallon is at 6 per cent nationally. She is strongest in Connacht-Ulster where she is on 10 per cent and she has the same level of support among farmers. She has twice as much support among women voters than among men.
