Fearful Coalition politicians have been watching and waiting for the austerity issue that would finally push resilient and long-suffering Irish people onto the streets.
The "straw that broke the camel's back" factor has been identified. It is water charges that have at last resulted in large protest marches and demonstrations involving citizens that Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams today identified as law-abiding, debt-adverse and often elderly.
Sinn Féin has been smarting since it was outflanked on the left in the recent Dublin South West byelection, which the victorious Socialist Party TD Paul Murphy managed to turn into a mini-referendum on water charges.
A widely expected win slipped through Sinn Féin’s fingers last month when Mr Murphy, who campaigned under an Anti-Austerity Alliance banner, convinced enough voters in the constituency that Sinn Féin was soft on the issue of a boycott of the charges.
Sinn Féin had adopted an arguably more nuanced approach to the contentious issue.
As deputy leader Mary-Lou McDonald put it today, the “bitter experience” of others telling people not to pay utility bills (such as bin charges and property tax) has in the past compounded difficulties for those already in financial distress.
When Sinn Féin launched its pre-budget submission last month, Mr Adams, Ms McDonald and other senior party figures confirmed they would pay water charges, although they did not agree with the concept.
The party's finance spokesman Pearse Doherty volunteered the sensible point that he would owe Irish Water more money if he did not fill out the application form sent to every household.
(The only slightly dissenting voice from the top table at that press conference on October 9th was that of Dublin TD Aengus Ó Snodaigh, who said he was inclined not to pay but had to discuss the matter with his wife.)
The party’s message appeared to be: do not get yourself into debt by not paying now but instead channel your anger and vote us into Government, where we will have to power to tackle water charges.
However, there has been a dramatic shift. Mr Adams yesterday confirmed he would not pay his water bill. This followed Ms McDonald’s similar statement at the weekend.
To be fair to Mr Adams, he has been upfront about the fact that he has completely changed his position.
He explains it this way: “When I was on the march in Dundalk the week of recess meeting with people, an awful lot of people are afraid, an awful lot, particularly older people who can’t pay and are wondering what is going to happen.
And it’s in solidarity with them that I changed my position.”
But what has changed in the last few weeks? It is hard to escape the conclusion that political expediency is at work.
