That theological construct, "mental reservation", is alive and well in politics. When commitments are given, they are generally time-constrained. So, when Micheál Martin insisted Fianna Fáil was not going into government with either Fine Gael or with Sinn Féin, he was reflecting the current situation. The electorate will decide the future. In the meantime, Mr Martin has no intention of alienating potential supporters by opting for the political equivalents of Scylla and Charbydis. Sinn Féin has similar problems. Scrapping the property tax is a condition for the party's entry into government. It also condemns other taxes and spending cuts. Given that fiscal baggage, policy modifications will be necessary to attract a willing coalition partner. These awkward issues are unlikely to arise until after the general election. In the meantime, opposing hardship remains an attractive formula.
As the Dáil returned and election preparations got underway, the opposition parties jockeyed for position. Buoyed up by recent opinion polls, Sinn Féin moved to consolidate its position as the most aggressive opponent of Government policy. Failing to maintain the momentum it had generated in the local elections and facing into an Oireachtas banking inquiry, Fianna Fáil appeared deflated. Having presided over the economic crash, it declined to say what it might do differently. What can be guaranteed, however, is that both parties will use the October by-elections to puncture Government confidence and Fine Gael and Labour Party hopes of early political recoveries.
Opposition pecking order at Leinster House may be up-ended by the decision of former Fine Gael TDs, Lucinda Creighton and four colleagues, to join the Technical Group of Independents. It was a bold move. Having failed to persuade Independent TDs to join them, the rebel group reversed engines in the expectation of securing additional speaking and committee rights. Whether those advantages will accrue is uncertain. Rulings by the Committee on Procedures and Privileges will be crucial and allegations of political chicanery can be guaranteed. Their membership would make the Technical Group larger than both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin. Lacking an agreed political agenda, the Group may lack focus. But the anticipated publicity could shore up support for Independents, which has slipped sharply.
There is a sense of politicians catching their breath and preparing for a long dash towards the starting line of the 32nd Dáil. Two Budgets remain to be delivered. The Government is desperately trying to manage unrealistic expectations while addressing demands in the areas of health and housing. Trouble concerning penalty points and Garda discipline is coming down the line, as are water charges. By-election losses are likely. Critically, convincing evidence of far-reaching economic recovery is required.
