Covid-19 is a little like rust. It never sleeps. A few weeks ago it looked like we had it finally under control. The vaccination programme under the stewardship of Prof Briain MacCraith was working seamlessly. Case numbers were plummeting as were numbers for hospitalisation and ICU admission. All the indicators were going in the right direction.
The Delta variant has given us a reminder coronavirus should never be underestimated. Within a number of weeks the variant has gone from a handful of cases in the UK to being so dominant that as of yesterday it accounted for 99 per cent of all cases, according to Public Health England.
In Portugal, over 95 per cent of new cases are of the Delta variant, while in the United States it tripled from 10 per cent of all new cases to 30 per cent in just 11 days.
In old money it is known as the Indian variant, and anyone who has followed its progress in that country will know the trail of destruction it has left behind.
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Here too, the rapid increase in cases has been incredible. Delta went from 5 per cent to 20 per cent in little over a week. There is a strong chance that by July it will be the dominant strain.
The Delta variant is 50 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha variant (previously known as the UK or Kent variant or B117) that in turn was 50 per cent more transmissible than the original strain.
But it's not its transmissibility that is causing concern; it's the fact the Delta variant is more vaccine-resistant. As we report in our main story this morning, the Cabinet will be briefed this morning on the sharp increase in the Delta variant – which has caused concern, especially with the next phase of reopening only weeks away.
Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan raised his concern about the rapid increases of cases on Twitter: “It is really important that people who are not fully vaccinated continue to follow all public health advice. This includes people who are waiting for their second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
“People should take a vaccine when it is offered to them and in the meantime they should continue to avoid crowds, limit contacts, avoid meeting up indoors and work from home where possible.”
Those who have received the first dose of a Covid vaccine are not fully protected. The first dose of AstraZeneca is only 33 per cent effective against Delta, while the second dose makes it over 60 per cent effective.
With a likelihood that Delta will become the dominant variant in Ireland within weeks – as has happened in other EU countries – there is concern that those who are not fully vaccinated will be more susceptible.
As of the weekend, one-third of eligible adults in the State had been fully vaccinated although that proportion will increase dramatically as the vaccination programme gathers pace into July. Some 330,000 doses are scheduled to be administered this week alone.
The issue with AstraZeneca is there is a much longer time span between the first and second dose than with Pfizer or Moderna (or the single-shot Jannsen/Johnson & Johnson). The period has been reduced now from 12 weeks to eight, but that is still twice the four weeks for Pfizer.
It has left a timing quandary. There are people over 60 who have yet to receive their second dose while those in their 50s and 40s have been fully vaccinated.
The Government hopes to get those second doses away as quickly as possible, especially for older cohorts.
What happened in Britain was that they lengthened the period between the two jabs to give as many people as possible the first shot, but limited protection from only the first shot has contributed to the rise in case numbers there.
Here it will be a race between the virus and full vaccination. It’s interesting to see that the median age for new cases has fallen to 25. That means case numbers are unlikely to fall as most of the new cases are happening among those who will be the last to be vaccinated.
Avoiding the ‘sausage war’
The so-called sausage war between Britain and the EU may be averted following an intervention by Micheál Martin.
Pat Leahy has the story, and he discloses the Taoiseach has pressed EU leaders to grant a grace period from EU regulations governing the importation of chilled meat.
The background is explained in the report: “EU regulations prohibit the import of chilled meats from outside the EU, and the protocol agreed with the British Government last year means that Northern Ireland will observe EU rules, thus preventing the importation of sausage and other chilled meats to the North from the rest of the UK.”
The reason for the attempt at concession relates to the sensitivity of Northern politics at this moment in time. The largest party, the DUP, is in the throes of a crisis (although it may be resolved within days with the coronation of Jeffrey Donaldson as leader). It’s also the beginning of marching season.
Yesterday Mr Donaldson confirmed he will run as a candidate for the job and said the Northern Ireland protocol would be his primary focus if elected to succeed Edwin Poots.
Best reads
Fintan O'Toole's column hones in on the ownership issue surrounding the National Maternity Hospital site.
Jennifer Bray reports the Cabinet will ban fur farming from 2022.
Pat Leahy on ongoing Government discussions on how the public finances will be shaped in the wake of the pandemic.
Brian Hutton reports about "chilling threats" made against Irish officials.
Playbook
The Cabinet meets this morning. Among the memos being brought is one from Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue calling for a full ban on fur farming.
Darragh O’Brien is also bringing his proposals that will require 20 per cent of all new residential developments to be comprised of social and affordable housing
In the Dáil, Leaders’ Questions are at 2pm. There will be statements on the European Council meeting later this week.
Sinn Féin brings a Private Members’ motion calling for the State pension age to be lowered to 65. That has led to some sniping from Government parties ahead of the debate.
Minister for Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht Sports and Media Catherine Martin is taking oral questions at 8pm.
The Seanad is sitting for barely three hours today. There is one debate with potential for contention, and that’s the motion seeking an extension of the Offences against the State Act for another year. How Sinn Féin Senators respond will be interesting. The party abstained last year.
Pick of the committees is transport where Lynne Embleton, CEO of Aer Lingus, will speak about the impact Covid-19 has had on the airline.
Justice is also following a Covid-19 related theme looking at the effect on civil liberties during the pandemic. Peter Lunn of the ESRI will appear, as will the ICCL and representatives of An Gárda Síochána.
