The timing of Simon Coveney’s interview where he expressed some doubts about the feasibility of a 7 per cent emissions target has come at a critical time in the government formation process.
As the Greens’ parliamentary party met on Friday evening for its third straight day of discussions on entering government, the comments are being interpreted by some as pulling the carpet from under the other parties.
His spokesman was quick to point out that Coveney had never said the Greens could “forget” about 7 per cent (if it seriously affected farming). However, the thrust of his comments was enough to provoke a reaction from the Greens.
The party’s deputy leader, Catherine Martin, launched a strong criticism of the Tánaiste’s comments on RTÉ radio, saying she was “shocked” and “disturbed” by them as she raised doubts about Fine Gael’s sincerity on this “red line” for the party.
Martin is one of a minority of the party’s parliamentarians who has expressed most reservations about the Greens entering negotiations with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
A majority within the parliamentary came to the view – ranging from tepid to strong – that the letter sent by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin could provide the basis for talks.
Waverers
Party leader Eamon Ryan is said to be fiercely determined that the party should go into government, and there is a sense that he can sway one or two “waverers” over the course of the next few days to achieve the two-thirds majority of TDs required to green-light negotiations.
There is mistrust to be sensed here. Some in the Greens do not trust Fine Gael’s motives, and do not believe it is sincere on the 7 per cent target or on others of the 17 Green Party “asks”.
And Fianna Fáil has also niggling doubts about Fine Gael’s true intentions. Some in the party take the view that the present caretaker arrangement – whatever its iffy constitutional status – suits Fine Gael just fine, and it’s in no hurry to form a government.
It is true that Fianna Fáil is keenest to form the three-party coalition because it knows it runs out of choices after that, unless Martin’s leadership is brought to an end.
It suspects that Fine Gael is hedging its bets, stringing others along while leaving the possibility of an election open.
It is true that the underlying conditions at the time of the general election have been usurped, and Fine Gael’s fortunes have been reversed since then. Fianna Fáil does feel a little besieged. Its air-raid sirens began to wail deafeningly when Varadkar said it could be the middle of June before a government was formed, a surefire sign that Fine Gael was in no huge rush.
Election
“Simon being misquoted? Aah, here,” texted one Fianna Fáil figure on Friday. “And mentioning an election as well.”
But there is no prospect of an election occurring anytime soon, and it would not be possible for a caretaker government to continue.
The Green Party had been tilting toward negotiations, but Friday’s events may have coloured things. It has decided to continue meeting and – in a sign of movement perhaps – has also allowed contacts between party leaders, strictly for clarification.
Despite the party’s strong performance in the elections, the outcome could determine the future of Ryan as leader. He has been to the forefront in arguing for negotiations, and if that stance is rejected it could have repercussions.
