Good morning.
It’s Budget Day. So if you’re a Cabinet Minister, you’re currently being briefed about the contents of the budget in Government Buildings, glancing furtively at your phone under the long mahogany table (feel free to send on a few screenshots).
If you're everybody else, you'll have to wait until Paschal Donohoe gets to his feet at 1pm, followed 45 minutes later by Michael McGrath, until you see what exactly Budget 2021 holds for you.
But as ever, we already have a fair idea what’s going to happen today. The big picture: massive borrowing will fund huge State support for people, businesses, public services and investment spending.
The detail – or some of it, at least - is spelled out on our front page and associated reports today here and here.
That includes, but is not limited to, an extra €4 billion for health spending, intended to meet the costs of Covid but also to expand the health service into the future with more beds and more doctors, new services and new facilities; business supports for sectors hammered by the Covid shutdown; big increases in welfare spending; a lot more money for housing; and green initiatives such as retrofitting, cuts to the VAT rate and changes to vehicle registration tax that will encourage lower and zero emission vehicles and clobber petrol and diesel guzzlers.
It all amounts to not just the biggest budget ever but the most interventionist in the economy – the Government is intervening to support businesses on an unprecedented scale. At one level this is basic Keynesianism – as the private sector contracts, the State moves in to replace it. It is also clear that much of the State support is designed to be short term – once economic activity resumes, the State supports will lapse. But it’s never that straightforward is it?
Today’s action is taking place in the National Convention Centre – a soulless behemoth that has everyone longing for the relative intimacy of Leinster House. As detailed, the action begins with Paschal Donohoe at 1pm and will continue all day until the votes late this evening. It’ll be a budget like no other. But will it work? Will it achieve its political and economic goals?
Truth is, nobody knows. It’s a gamble, the size of which we’ve never seen before. That said, faced with a monstered economy, a rampant virus and the need to protect the social fabric, which has been put under such strain in the last decade, Donohoe and Michael McGrath are not men with a whole bag of options.
Here's my take on what lies ahead – a big budget but no celebrations, while Fintan O'Toole writes the budget must tackle inequality.
(Non-budget) Best reads
More good news on the coronavirus front and Dr Tony's warnings: no parties, no playdates.
Mark Weiss has a cautionary tale about the second Israeli lockdown.
Irish Times correspondents around the world have a series of excellent pieces this morning. Guy Hedgecoe has a bizarre tale from Madrid about the strange controversy that is engulfing the coalition government there.
Suzanne Lynch reports from Arizona where Democrats nurture hopes of taking the state and somehow manages to cover the Senate hearings for Supreme Court nominee Any Coney Barrett and the Trump campaign and the Biden campaign in Ohio.
You can sign up for her daily campaign letter here.
And in London Denis Staunton has news and analysis on the new British restrictions.
Budget playbook
The Cabinet meets at 8am in Government Buildings, when Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath will brief their colleagues about the full extent of today’s Budget measures.
Dáil business begins at 1pm, when Donohoe is due to speak for approximately 45 minutes to be followed by McGrath for a similar period. Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin then has an hour to respond, after which other Opposition spokespeople will be offered slots.
The budget debate continues until 8pm when the Dáil will break before resuming for budget votes at 8.30pm, until late if necessary.
Votes are needed to pass tax and other changes that come into operation at midnight. Observers will be watching particularly to see if the Greens manage to keep all their TDs on board.
Once the main speeches are out of the way, however, the battle moves to the airwaves. Ministers will host a series of press conferences to lay out their new spending plans. Opposition spokespeople will furiously pick holes in the plans. What Government hopes above all is to avoid any budget landmines that detonate unexpectedly and have it scrambling to made amends – “that’s something we hope to address in the finance Bill” is the usual get out of jail card – by teatime.
The budget will get all the attention but keep an eye on two other issues today.
Mr Justice Seamus Woulfe of the Supreme Court is due to meet his boss, the Chief Justice, amid continued ominous rumbling about the Woulfe’s attendance at the infamous Oireachtas golf dinner and the subsequent fallout. Their Lordships remain distinctly unamused at the behaviour of their newest colleague and at the dismissive attitude displayed by him in the published transcript – most entertaining, if you get a chance to read it – of the judge’s interview with former CJ Susan Denham.
And the Northern Executive meets to discuss the rapid rise in Covid cases there, amid calls from the chief medical officer there for a six-week lockdown to stop the spread of the virus. Further restrictions are very likely. There is continued concern in Dublin at the implications in the South of the North’s spiralling numbers. Said one senior Government figure last night with admirable frankness: “It’s a sh*tshow”.
Whatever about that, enjoy today’s show. Sure it only comes once a year. We hope.
