For a party that is expending serious effort trumpeting its “long-term economic plan”, Fine Gael’s policy on tax and public expenditure has seen more than its fair share of changes.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan's carefully cultivated persona has allowed him, on behalf of Fine Gael, to pull off a series of about-turns that would lead to howls of derision from the Government benches if another party did it.

When the Government initially found itself with money to spend two years ago, Fine Gael wanted tax reductions focused on the top rate of income tax – and the top rate was duly reduced from 41 per cent to 40 per cent in Budget 2015.

At the time Noonan said it wouldn’t be possible to abolish the universal social charge (USC) because it “raises a lot of money” and joked that income tax was supposed to be a temporary measure when it was introduced in the House of Commons over a century ago.

The spring economic statement in April 2015 then saw Taoiseach Enda Kenny change to favouring cuts in USC rather than the top rate of income tax.

Pre-election package

USC cuts were included in Budget 2016 and that same budget saw the Government, despite insisting it would not spend more than €1.5 billion in reducing taxes and increases spending, stuff an extra €1.5 billion in supplementary spending into its pre-election package.

Last October Kenny said: “If returned to government Fine Gael will put complete abolition of the USC at the centre of the most radical overhaul of personal taxation in a generation.”

Tánaiste Joan Burton flagged that Labour would only abolish USC for those on under €70,000 and, in response, well-placed Fine Gael sources stressed that Kenny meant abolition of the levy in its entirety.

Weeks later, in December, the party signalled that it was in fact introducing a clawback mechanism for those over €100,000.

Clawback

Just last month Noonan – in a confirmation of the clear change from the October position – said there was an “assumption that it is the Government’s intention, if re-elected, to abolish USC completely for all levels of income. That is not the position. We will have a clawback so that these very high benefits will not accrue to high-earners.”

At the Fine Gael ardfheis last weekend Noonan said the next minister for finance would have over €12 billion in resources – the so-called fiscal space – available between 2017 and 2021. He said this would be split between 30 per cent tax cuts – in USC, capital gains tax, tax equalisation for the self-employed and inheritance tax – and 70 per cent for expenditure. “The rest of the fiscal space will be used for extra expenditure, whether on programmes like health and education and justice, or on investment in social or economic infrastructure.”

In an interview yesterday Noonan resiled somewhat from this position and said between €10 billion and €12 billion would be available, and 25 per cent of this would be set aside for a “contingency and stability reserve”.

A number of Fine Gael sources said the idea of the reserve fund was included in earlier drafts of the manifesto going as far back as October and November.

Yet it calls into question whether the party suddenly arrived on a newfound commitment to public spending or whether, likes its moves on USC, it was responding to the focus group testing of which it is so fond. It is perhaps an effort to counter charges of “auction politics”.

The paucity of opposition is allowing Fine Gael get away with catch-all policies designed to outfox competitors.