The situation could hardly be worse for the Labour Party as it prepares to contest the European and local elections: unpopular water charges are being introduced; it has failed to sustain an economic feelgood factor among voters and poor opinion poll findings have caused panic among its candidates. That panic has been reflected by way of a call for the removal of Eamon Gilmore as party leader.
All leaders live with the knowledge that their time is limited. But bad election results, rather than anticipated outcomes, are normally used to see them off. In this instance, an early intervention by MEP Phil Prendergast may have been designed to ensure that the coming Cabinet reshuffle will not be used to preserve Mr Gilmore's leadership. Pressure also exists in other parties. Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has been subjected to sharp criticisms because of the party's performance in Dublin while Enda Kenny's handling of recent controversies has attracted criticism.
Across Europe, particularly in countries that experienced deep recession and high unemployment, voters are expected to vent their anger. Disenchantment with EU policies, falling living standards and opposition to immigration have fed into a generalised distrust of government parties and politicians. In Ireland, the trend has been particularly marked. First, with the meltdown of Fianna Fáil in the 2011 general election and now with the emergence of four competing power blocs that threaten to overturn historic arrangements. A succession of opinion polls have shown support for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Independents to be within touching distance, with the Labour Party coming a very poor fifth. Effective vote management within parties and co-operation on voting transfers involving Independents could transform the political landscape. Because of a restructuring of local government, the precise impact of the elections may not be immediately obvious. But there will be no disguising success or failure at European level.
One-third of the electorate is unwilling to vote or remains undecided. With nearly four weeks to polling day, that figure is likely to change. So far, opposition parties have succeeded in presenting the elections as a plebiscite on taxation policies and water charges. Fine Gael and the Labour Party lost the political momentum they had gained from exiting the EU-IMF bailout, reviving the economy and the creation of jobs. Perhaps they trumpeted an end to recession too early? In recent months, they have consistently been on the defensive. Unless they sort out inter-party disagreements and present a united front, the prospect of them surviving the fallout of these elections and serving a full term in government looks increasingly unlikely.
