Taoiseach Enda Kenny avoided overblown claims concerning a bright new dawn or an end to hardship as a consequence of exiting the IMF/EU bailout programme in his televised national address on RTÉ television. Instead, he paid tribute to the Irish people who, by their discipline and sacrifices, had made job creation and economic growth possible within the context of on-going fiscal restraint. It was a sober, almost neutral, assessment of the State’s economic prospects, with a sharp eye to international financial markets.
It is only when comparisons are made with Mr Kenny’s first address, delivered two years ago, that the extent of the progress made by Government becomes apparent. Back then, Mr Kenny’s speech was built around problems: about restoring the economy and fixing the deficit; about creating jobs and looking after the vulnerable; about necessary, tough budgets and downsizing the public service. This time, his focus was on opportunities: about a recovering economy and a growing number of jobs; about exiting the bailout, rising public optimism and the need to underpin these developments with prudent budgetary policies.
Mr Kenny’s declaration that “our lives will not change overnight” provided a necessary antidote to unrealistic expectations. A further difficult budget will be required to deal with the Government’s shrinking deficit. His endorsement of “prudent budgetary policies” may act as a brake on demands for early income tax cuts and for other sectoral concessions. Criticism of banks and their reluctance to lend to small businesses or deal with mortgage arrears was to be expected. But the absence of a formal commitment to protect and support vulnerable citizens is worrying.
Fianna Fáil spokesman on finance Michael McGrath criticised the lack of detail provided on job creation while Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams observed that austerity measures and cuts in services would continue unabated. Both of those issues are likely to be clarified within a matter of days through the projections contained in the Government's medium-term economic plan. The decision to avoid dealing directly with these matters does, however, indicate the potential fragility of the recovery.
The Government parties are preparing for a general election in 2016. After three tough budgets, they have few expectations for next year's local and European elections. After that, however, rapid economic growth and job creation are likely to become the backbone of a general election project. Elements of the Government's austerity programme were designed by its predecessors. But Mr Kenny made no reference to Fianna Fáil in his address. Instead, in a blatant clothes-stealing exercise, he modified one of its most effective vote-getting slogans and promised to "finish the job you entrusted to us". A lot done, more to do?
