Police and nationalist and loyalist community leaders hope that Thursday's Twelfth of July evening parade past the Ardoyne shops in north Belfast will pass off peacefully despite the absence of a local agreement on the parade.
Serious rioting flared during the contentious return Orange parade by the shops in 2004 and 2005 while last year was generally trouble-free. So far this marching season has also been calm with agreement or understandings about difficult parades such as Whiterock and Drumcree.
No such agreement is in place for Ardoyne which has resulted in the Parades Commission issuing a ruling placing restrictions on the return parade, similar to last year's determination.
On Thursday morning the five lodges, three bands and supporters will be permitted to march by the Ardoyne shops during the feeder parade to join the main Twelfth of July parade in Belfast. Music is banned past the shops. In the evening, however, just three lodges and two bands, again without music, will be allowed by the shops. Supporters will be bussed through the area.
While there is no formal agreement, police, Parades Commission and local nationalist and loyalist sources are guardedly confident that there will be no trouble at Ardoyne on Thursday evening. There is an expectation that republican and loyalist marshals will police the respective nationalist protest and Orange parade to ensure the night concludes peacefully.
Meanwhile, SDLP Assembly member Declan O'Loan has praised the Orange Order over one of the three resolutions that are read out after all Twelfth of July parades. The motions deal with "faith", "loyalty" and the "state".
In this last political resolution the order calls "our members to a role of civic and community leadership within these islands". It adds: "Our institution watches with interest the developing political situation in Northern Ireland and, like many others within the unionist community, shares grave reservations about the presence of those in government whom we would not see as democrats in the accepted sense of the term. The commitment of Sinn Féin-IRA to proper democratic government will be constantly monitored and the opportunity presented to them by the recent election results is a test which they must not fail."
Mr O'Loan said that the resolution illustrated the order was on a continuing path towards political progress. "I welcome their call to their members to a role of civic and community leadership within these islands. Above all, I regard their words about the new Assembly and associated structures as very encouraging," he said.
"They say that they are watching with interest the developing political situation in Northern Ireland, and that the opportunity presented to republicans is a test that they must not fail. This is a major advance on previous positions taken up by the order," he added.
Mr O'Loan said he could understand the order's concerns "about those who are in government who were previously involved in violence, but taken as a whole the Orange Order stance is very positive".
"The positive wording of this resolution should be seen alongside moves by the order to open up conversations with the Parades Commission, the Catholic Church, the SDLP, and some local residents. It also fits in with moves that are clearly present in many communities to do fresh thinking on bonfires and the flying of flags," he added.
