CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:BOTH FINE Gael and Labour are guaranteed a seat in Dublin Mid West, but that is perhaps the only thing that can be predicted with any level of certainty about the constituency.
Either sitting Labour TD Joanna Tuffy or Fine Gael Seanad leader Frances Fitzgerald is expected to top the poll.
Fitzgerald is close to her party leader Enda Kenny and could expect a cabinet position, while Tuffy has performed well in the Dáil as well as locally since her election in 2007. Both women have well-known running mates, and it is not easy to gauge which party will emerge from the election with a second seat.
While the possibility of two seats each for Fine Gael and Labour cannot be ruled out, candidates from the main parties are edgy about where a palpably angry protest vote will end up once Independents are eliminated. With the Fine Gael ticket also boasting Derek Keating, and Robert Dowds the other Labour candidate, the strength of these running mates have prompted some inter-party tussles. Keating, formerly an Independent, was elected comfortably on the first count in the 2009 local elections in Lucan, while Dowds topped the poll in the Clondalkin ward.
Fianna Fáil chief whip John Curran headed the poll here in 2007, when he was elected on the first count with 8,650 votes.
Clearly, there can be no repeat of such a stellar performance for any Fianna Fáil candidate in Dublin this time. However, Clondalkin-based Curran’s fate is described as “imponderable” by rivals as it is difficult to estimate what quiet level of personal loyalty to the man remains. Many find it impossible to countenance the sole Fianna Fáil candidate losing his seat, with one simply saying their gut tells them he will do better than polls suggest.
While he is undoubtedly still in the running for a seat, Curran could find himself fighting for the third or even the fourth position.
Sinn Féin candidate Eoin Ó Broin, who ran in Dún Laoghaire in 2007 and has conducted an energetic campaign, is a strategic thinker and should poll strongly enough to feature in the battle for the fourth and final post.
The constituency has a high-profile retiree, former Progressive Democrats leader and minister for health Mary Harney, who polled less than 4,700 first preferences last time. Her votes may go mostly to Fine Gael.
Green Party TD Paul Gogarty, based in Lucan, who scored more than 4,000 first preferences, is expected to lose his seat unless he can somehow tap into previously hidden pockets of support.
Unusually, two candidates are running under the United Left Alliance banner. People Before Profit’s Gino Kenny is better known than Robert Connolly of the Socialist Party and is expected to attracy a decent vote.
Mick Finnegan is running for the Workers Party, while Colm McGrath, Jim McHale, Michael Anthony Ryan and Niall Smith are running as Independents.
DUBLIN MID WEST: 4 SEATS
OUTGOING TDS:
John Curran (FF), Joanna Tuffy (Lab), Paul Gogarty (G), Mary Harney (Ind).
CANDIDATES:
John Curran (FF), Frances Fitzgerald (FG), Derek Keating (FG), Joanna Tuffy (Lab), Robert Dowds (Lab), Paul Gogarty (GP), Eoin O Broin (SF), Gino Kenny (ULA), Robert Connelly (ULA), Mick Finnegan (WP), Colm McGrath (Ind), Jim McHale (Ind), Michael Anthony Ryan (Ind), Niall Smith (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES:
This mostly urban constituency has a young age profile, so education and the provision of youth facilities are always issues close to the hearts of constituents. Concern about jobs is growing. Public
transport for commuters also crops up frequently.
VERDICT:FF 1, FG 2, Lab 1
