A new opinion poll in advance of Assembly elections in less than two weeks time states that the SDLP is ahead of Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionist Party is six points clear of the DUP.
The Belfast Telegraph poll reports that in terms of first preferences votes the UUP will win 26 per cent of the vote against 20 per cent for the DUP and that the SDLP will win 22 per cent against 20 per cent for Sinn Féin. Alliance scored 6 per cent, half a point down on its Assembly result.
The poll was conducted by Millward Brown Ulster from November 6th-8th with 1,058 adults interviewed at 50 locations across Northern Ireland.
While a wide sample of people were interviewed, it is generally acknowledged that all election polls in Northern Ireland must be treated with great caution. Traditionally polls underestimate the support for Sinn Féin and the DUP because it is believed that people are reluctant to concede that they support perceived hardline parties.
Nonetheless, the poll will provide some comfort for the respective UUP and SDLP leaders Mr David Trimble and Mr Mark Durkan. But equally, based on the assumption that Sinn Féin and the DUP do better than polls forecast, Mr Gerry Adams and the Rev Ian Paisley will be unruffled by the poll findings. The poll also found that Mr Trimble at 22 per cent was the preferred choice as the next First Minister. Mr Adams at 15 per cent was one point ahead of Mr Durkan for the same position - a finding that Sinn Féin will want to highlight.
Transfers will be crucial in the election. The poll found that the SDLP would win 14 per cent of second preference votes, the UUP and DUP each taking 7 per cent, and Sinn Féin, who in past elections have lost seats because of poor transfers, winning 6 per cent.
According to the poll 65 per cent of Sinn Féin voters would transfer to the SDLP, but only one in three SDLP supporters would reciprocate.
Much is being said of the UUP versus DUP rivalry but the poll forecasts that 28 per cent of DUP voters would give second preferences to the UUP while an almost equal 27 per cent of Ulster Unionists would transfer to the DUP.
Much is also being made of the potential apathy factor in the election which could prove particularly damaging for the UUP.
The poll however reports that 82 per cent of respondents were certain to vote or very likely to vote. A further 4 per cent were fairly likely to vote with only 7 per cent certain not to vote and another 7 per cent fairly likely not to vote.
