N-S Ospreys v Munster (3.00)
There's a palpable fear in the air about the prospects for the Irish provinces as they head into a fairly daunting European weekend, and it even extends to Munster. Ireland's standard-bearers haven't clicked yet this season, which remains something of a mystery, and the prophets of doom have, as ever, been quick to start circling.
Further abroad, Sky's resident expert Stuart Barnes has gone so far as to suggest there's something missing in the Munster mix this season and forecasts they will not emerge from their pool for the first time in seven years.
Certainly Munster don't look in prime nick for a game that could ultimately decide their pool fate. Defeat here, coupled with an even more imposing trip to Castres five days after the autumn internationals, could leave them with two defeats from three at the half-way point, with little hope of a home quarter-final and hard-pressed even to make the last eight.
Only time will tell how the Ospreys react to a first defeat of the season away to Castres last week. But given Welsh records in France, there was no shame - Jonathan Thomas's red card notwithstanding - or surprise in that 38-17 loss and, judging from the highlights, they appeared to play quite well in patches at any rate.
The Ospreys are at an even further point of no return given the consequences of losing two from two but will be buoyed by the comforts of home, given they've won four from four there this season, scoring 16 tries and 124 points.
After their 11-6 win over Leinster in Swansea a fortnight ago, coach Lyn Jones was bullish about his team's well-being: "Not only did they not score a try, they didn't look like scoring one," he said. "Not only are we catching them up (the Irish provinces) but we're going to surpass them."
Thrown in the whiff of cordite from the 34-17 defeat in Swansea on the opening day of the season, and of course this is grist to the Munster mill.
That defeat turned on a madcap seven-minute spell before the break when Munster conceded 17 points, and apart from the outside three of Christian Cullen, Anthony Horgan and Shaun Payne, the only survivor from that night in the starting line-up is Jim Williams.
Alan Gaffney has recalled the fit again Payne to centre, with John Kelly reverting to the wing, and Donncha O'Callaghan to the second row for his first start since April, as well as David Wallace at open side at the expense of Denis Leamy. Trevor Hogan and Mossie Lawlor revert to the bench of four forwards and three backs, so Leamy misses out.
Admittedly, the Ospreys themselves are significantly stronger, not least with Duncan Jones and Adam Jones propping up the scrum, and they retain only seven of that starting line-up from early September. Likewise they've gone for more experienced options in making five changes to the team beaten in Castres. Elvis Seveali'i is in for David Bishop at centre, Andy Newman starts at lock and Steve Tandy, Ryan Jones and James Bater make up a new back row in the absence of the suspended Thomas.
Munster weren't that far from pulling away last week, as would more likely have been the case on a dry day, and though they had to dig deep defensively that ought to be good for their belief in each other.
All the ingredients are there, the Test-quality pack and halves having been garnished with a rejuvenated Cullen, an on-song Horgan and the all-round effectiveness of Payne in midfield, whose return will further sharpen their cutting edge.
O'Gara's understanding with Cullen is blossoming, though ironically the Peter Stringer-O'Gara axis hasn't looked so telepathic this season. It will need to be, as a fortnight ago Sonny Parker led the Ospreys' line up fast and hard on Leinster. Only Ben Gissing made inroads, as Leinster over committed to rucks and Munster are better equipped with runners than Leinster.
It could be quite a dogfight, and though Gavin Henson's prodigious range will give the Ospreys territory, O'Gara is a cannier operator and more suited to occasions such as this than David Holwell was that night. What's more, if it comes down to a kicking duel between the outhalves, you'd still wager on O'Gara.
With a rockin', tightly-confined capacity ground of 10,000 practically breathing on the players, it could be just what Munster need to rekindle that old Euro fire.
NEATH-SWANSEA OSPREYS:A Durston; R Mustoe, S Parker, E Seveali'i, S Williams; G Henson, J Spice; D Jones, B Williams, A Jones, A Newman, B Cockbain, J Bater, S Tandy, R Jones. Replacements: M Davies, A Millward, P James, L Bateman, R Pugh, A Williams, M Jones.
MUNSTER:C Cullen; J Kelly, S Payne, R Henderson, A Horgan; R O'Gara, P Stringer; M Horan, F Sheahan, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell, J Williams, A Foley, D Wallace. Replacements: J Flannery, G McIlwham, T Hogan, A Quinlan, M Prendergast, P Burke, M Lawlor.
Referee:Joel Jutge (France).
