McCreevy says worst figures in years hide real growth

The Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, has played down some of the worst economic figures in 20 years, claiming they underestimated…

The Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, has played down some of the worst economic figures in 20 years, claiming they underestimated the "real" level of economic growth. The data released by the Central Statistics Office confirmed that the economy crawled along last year, with growth of only 0.1 per cent.

However, Mr McCreevy said the figures were "depressed" by the poor performance of some large companies and that "real" economic growth was nearer 2 per cent.

The National Income and Expenditure Annual Results for 2002, the definitive measure of economic performance, showed that gross national product (GNP) barely budged, growing from €74.32 billion in 2001 to €74.37 billion in 2002.

GNP is the monetary value of all the goods and services produced by the economy and is seen as a realistic measure of economic performance.

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This is because it excludes profits repatriated by multinationals and only counts the wealth generated by people living in this country.

However, the figure does include profits made overseas by Irish companies which are repatriated here, and Mr McCreevy said that a fall in foreign profits from Irish companies such as Elan and AIB may have depressed the GNP figure.

Economist were divided last night about the Minister's comments. The chief economist at Friends First, Mr Jim Power, pointed out that GNP measured the part of the economy that was taxed. "The reality is that this is what generates the bulk of tax revenue and it has clearly continued to struggle this year."

Mr Power recently predicted that GNP would grow by about 1.6 per cent this year. Last night, however, he said he would be revising it downward in light of yesterday's CSO figures.

Other economists appeared to support Mr McCreevy's view that the official figures may underestimate growth. Mr Dan McLaughlin of Bank of Ireland and Mr Colin Hunt of Goodbody Stockbrokers argued last night that domestic demand - which includes consumer and Government spending and house prices - was a more accurate measure of economic growth. This figure came in at 2.7 per cent. "That is not a bad performance," said Mr McLaughlin.

Speaking in Brussels, where he was attending a meeting of EU finance ministers, Mr McCreevy acknowledged that even if the figures were unfavourably skewed, as he suggested, they still reflected a downturn in the economy.

"The better measure of how Irish economy is performing at home is the GNP figure. It would indicate that since 2001 the Irish economy has been on a very marked downward curve," he said.

Labour's finance spokeswoman, Ms Joan Burton, said an "unholy trinity" of falling competitiveness, weakening foreign investment and a strong euro had stalled the economy.

She accused the Minister for Finance of overheating the economy at the height of the boom. "He drove up inflation and costs and undermined our competitiveness. We are now paying the price in low growth and increasing redundancies," she said.

The Fine Gael spokesman on enterprise, trade and employment, Mr Phil Hogan, blamed the figures on careless management of the public finances. He called for an acceleration of reforms in the public sector and the insurance industry.

"When one considers the significant number of jobs lost, particularly in manufacturing in 2003, it is reasonable to assume that this year we will see negative growth in the Irish economy," he said.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times