McAleese expected to win on 2nd count

Prof Mary McAleese is the firm favourite to become the eighth President of Ireland in today's presidential elections

Prof Mary McAleese is the firm favourite to become the eighth President of Ireland in today's presidential elections. She is poised to become the first Northern nationalist to hold the position.

More than 2 1/2 million voters are eligible to cast a vote in the election which, for the first time, is being contested by five candidates. Four of them, for the first time also, are women.

Voters will be handed two ballot papers at their polling stations. The white one will contain the names of the five candidates in alphabetical order: Mary Banotti, for Fine Gael; Mary McAleese, representing Fianna Fail and the PDs; Derek Nally; Adi Roche, endorsed by Labour, Democratic Left and the Green Party; and Dana Rosemary Scallon.

The green paper will ask voters to approve or reject the proposed 17th amendment to the Constitution. This amendment would put the rule of absolute Cabinet confidentiality relating to Government discussions into the Constitution for the first time and provides two exceptions where the High Court or a tribunal could override that rule in the public interest.

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Meanwhile, strategists in all political parties are expecting very few surprises in the contest to elect Mrs Mary Robinson's successor. Prof McAleese was 13 percentage points ahead of her nearest rival, Ms Banotti, in first preference votes in the last opinion poll of the campaign, conducted by MRBI for The Irish Times on Monday.

When the 20 per cent undecided voters were excluded, Prof McAleese was leading by 16 points on the first count.

The counting of votes will begin at the 41 centres throughout the State at 9 a.m. tomorrow. Though the tallies should give a firm indication of the outcome by lunch-time, the first count is not expected to be available until late afternoon.

If the sum total of the votes of the three lowest candidates are less than Ms Banotti's - as indicated in the polls - the returning officer, Mr Peter Greene, is obliged to eliminate all three together. In such circumstances, Prof McAleese could be elected on the second and final count by 8 p.m.

Geraldine Kennedy

Geraldine Kennedy

Geraldine Kennedy was editor of The Irish Times from 2002 to 2011