CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:THE BOUNDARIES of the Louth constituency have been significantly extended since the last general election to include the coastal area of Co Meath, south of Drogheda. The number of seats has increased, from four to five.
However, only four seats are really in contention because Seamus Kirk of Fianna Fáil, as outgoing Ceann Comhairle of the Dáil, is automatically re-elected.
In early November, there was the announcement by sitting Sinn Féin TD Arthur Morgan that he would not be going for re-election. This was followed by the news that party leader, Gerry Adams, was to be a candidate in his place and would relinquish his seats at Stormont and Westminster.A few weeks later Fianna Fáil’s Dermot Ahern said he was retiring from politics for health reasons. He resigned his cabinet post on January 19th.
Adams persists in his denial that he was ever a member of the IRA. His role as a peacemaker in recent times should work in his favour.
Neither of Fianna Fáil’s two candidates has run for the Dáil previously. James Carroll and Cllr Declan Breathnach face a tough battle to win a seat. The presence of former party member Cllr Thomas Clare on the ballot paper, as part of the New Vision alliance of Independent candidates, will not help.
Fine Gael party spokesman on the environment, Fergus O’Dowd, looks a strong contender to top the poll. The question is whether he can bring running-mate Peter Fitzpatrick into the Dáil with him.
Labour lost its Dáil seat here to Arthur Morgan in 2002. Sinn Féin held onto it by a bigger margin five years later. The 2007 candidate, Ged Nash from Drogheda, is accompanied by Dundalk-based Mary Moran this time and there is a sizeable Labour vote in the new territory acquired from Co Meath.
Green Party candidate Mark Dearey, who replaced Deirdre de Búrca, put in a strong showing last time with more than 4,000 first preferences. Although likely to suffer because of antagonism towards the Government, his transfers could be a factor in the destination of the final seat.
Last time, there was a strong transfer of Green votes to Sinn Féin but Adams is considered less transfer-friendly than Morgan. Like Dearey, Fine Gael’s Fitzpatrick and Breathnach of Fianna Fáil are based in the Dundalk area and this should work to their benefit, assuming they are still in the race after the Green candidate is eliminated.
National polls suggest Fine Gael should take two seats but local, geographical factors make that less likely. Fianna Fáil should just about make it. Sinn Féin looks secure but can take nothing for granted and Labour may just win the last seat in Louth.
LOUTH: 5 SEATS
OUTGOING TDs:
Seamus Kirk (FF), Dermot Ahern (FF), Fergus O’Dowd (FG). Arthur Morgan (SF)
CANDIDATES:
Seamus Kirk (FF), Ceann
Comhairle, unopposed, Declan Breathnach (FF), Senator James Carroll (FF),Peter Fitzpatrick (FG), Fergus O’Dowd (FG), Mary Moran (Lab), Gerald (Ged) Nash (Lab), Senator Mark Dearey (GP), Gerry Adams (SF), Thomas Clare (New Vision), David Bradley (Ind), Gerry Crilly (Ind), Robert Glynn (Ind), Frank Godfrey (Ind), Luke Martin (Ind), Fred Matthews (Ind), Robin Wilson (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES:
Hospital services; unemployment at 8,000 in Drogheda, 7,500 in Dundalk and 3,500 in Ardee; rivalry between Dundalk and Drogheda over facilities and representation
VERDICT:FF 2 (inc. Ceann Chomhairle), FG 1, Lab 1, SF 1
