The second Lisbon Treaty referendum will take place in early October, senior political sources have told The Irish Times, but this is predicated on securing the appropriate guarantees at this week's European Union summit in Brussels.
Government representatives have held up to 60 separate meetings in private with other EU member-states with process becoming more public this week after the leaking of a draft text of the guarantees Ireland is seeking. That text, published in The Irish Timesyesterday, is the subject of continuing discussion and consultation, especially on the legal standing of the guarantees.
The matter is on the agenda for discussion by EU heads of government at the European Council meeting tomorrow evening in Brussels but it is not clear whether it can be “wrapped up” in one session, so the issue may be revisited on Friday.
The issue of the legal standing of the guarantees has a number of aspects. The Government contends that a decision of the Council to approve the guarantees would be legally-binding. This would be similar to the Council decision on the Danish opt-outs at the Edinburgh summit in December 1992. It is pointed out that the Danes and all other member-states regarded that Council decision as having the status of an internationally-binding treaty and, indeed, that the Danes registered the decision at the United Nations.
In some respects the Irish guarantees are modelled on the Danish opt-outs. Those opt-outs in time became a protocol to the Amsterdam Treaty. The Irish hope the Council decision will also, in time, acquire Treaty status. This would be intended to take place at the time of Croatian or Icelandic accession – whichever one is first.
Although the Government would argue that, although a Treaty protocol is not essential, it would nevertheless have value as an extra “belt-and-braces” guarantee.
The Commissioner issue, on the other hand, is regarded as being “done and dusted”. The European Council meeting last December agreed that, if the Lisbon Treaty comes into force, there will continue to be one commissioner nominated by each member-State. Under the existing Nice Treaty, the new Commission taking office this year would have to have fewer than 27 members, which is the total number of member-States at present.
The date of the second Lisbon referendum is expected to be announced by the Government in the near future. The most likely date is during the first week in October, possibly Friday 9th.
The major concern of the other 26 member-States is to avoid having to re-ratify Lisbon. That means there is a certain nervousness about this final stage of negotiations, particularly on the British side. “Member-States like to hold their position till the last minute,” according to a Government source.
Dublin is “reasonably confident” of success at the summit, where the Government will argue that the decision being sought does not require re-ratification of the Treaty. There have been a number of drafting suggestions from the British on matters of etail and these “may quite possibly be taken on board”.
Apart from Ireland, there are three other member-States which have yet to deposit the instrument of ratification in Rome – the final stage of the process. These are: Germany, where the constitutional court has to give its approval; the Czech Republic and Poland, whose respective presidents still have to sign the Treaty. But Ireland is the only one that poses a real challenge, according to observers.
Most of the Irish effort has gone into the guarantee on neutrality where, at EU level, there are two distinct camps on the issue. One consists of the other countries which adhere to a policy of neutrality but with different degrees of emphasis. The second camp consists of members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), some of whom wish to continue as strictly US allies whereas others would welcome a greater European defence dimension.
