It always comes down to seats, and Fine Gael TDs looked a general election in the eye these past few days and feared the worst for their own. For Enda Kenny, that means his departure date as leader of the party and Taoiseach has been brought significantly forward.
TDs saw the tensions sparked by the Maurice McCabe controversy and feared Fianna Fáil could run to the country. Fine Gael would be fighting an election at best in the throes of a leadership contest or, at worst, with Kenny at the helm.
“People are just scared if there is an election and us going into it into it with him as leader,” said one TD, summing up the views of many of his colleagues.
The mood has shifted decisively in the party – from the Cabinet to the backbenches, and even among Kenny loyalists. Backbenchers who just weeks ago saw no rush in changing leadership are now revising their views.
The Taoiseach’s stay in office is now being counted in weeks, or, as one Kenny ally at Cabinet put it, “one month, maybe two”.
White House
The majority of TDs are willing to give Kenny space to carry out his duties in the White House on St Patrick’s Day, but not much longer besides. Some – even senior Ministers – speculate that a change could come sooner.
They are almost all clear that the space they will afford Kenny is for him to step aside with dignity, not to engineer a way of staying in office for another six months to a year.
Fine Gael Dublin North West backbencher Noel Rock, a supporter of Leo Varadkar, on Monday called on Mr Kenny to set a timeframe for his departure. His call was immediately disowned by those close to the Minister for Social Protection.
“Rock was not sent out by Leo or anyone close to him,” said a Minister close to Varadkar, whose camp were horrified that the issue was raised ahead of the Government facing a vote of no confidence.
Yet the brief episode summed up how the party has dealt with leadership thus far. Kenny’s position was secure as long as the Ministers would not move and the backbenchers, believing they have done their bit last year in challenging Kenny, looked to the Ministers to act.
No confidence
Leadership candidates show no signs of approaching Kenny and asking him to stand aside, and backbenchers are reluctant to table a motion of no confidence.
The Mexican standoff held, and those close to the Taoiseach knew it. But it is unlikely to hold much longer. Even if Ministers sit on their hands, the tension within the party is likely to burst by the summer.
It is widely accepted that the only two realistic candidates to replace him are Varadkar and Simon Coveney.
They need to get organised, and quick, if they weren’t already. That organisation, however, needs to extend to how the Taoiseach could be removed if he does not leave of his own accord.