A planned visit to the North by major US investors this spring or early summer hinges on the reactivation of the Stormont House Agreement, retired American senator Gary Hart has warned on a visit to Northern Ireland.
Senator Hart expressed confidence that the current stalemate threatening the Northern Executive and Assembly would be resolved before the May 7th UK general election but warned that failure to settle the dispute over welfare reform would have economic consequences for Northern Ireland.
He said on Thursday that the US state department is planning to bring a group of senior US investors to Northern Ireland in the coming months but this trip and US investment generally could be undermined by continuing political instability.
In particular the 78-year-old special envoy to Northern Ireland cited how Northern Secretary Theresa Villiers has insisted that without a deal on welfare reform the Northern Executive will not be granted corporation tax-setting powers.
“You can’t attract 12 or 15 or 24 executive vice presidents of fairly substantial corporations to come over here for three or four days if there is confusion or lack of resolution on budgetary issues,” he said.
“If there is no clear number on what is the tax rate for corporations I would think it would be difficult if not impossible to get any company to come here,” said Senator Hart.
“The first question the international vice presidents are going to ask is how much tax do we have to pay? And if the answer is we don’t know they’ll say when you know tell me and we’ll look into it,” he added.
Senator Hart said investors loved certainty and stability. “Uncertainty is their enemy,” he said. “The more certainty there is of budgetary, fiscal and political stability in Northern Ireland the better the chances of attracting American investment - foreign investment - of all kinds,” he added.
“There is a direct correlation between interest in new markets and facilities and hiring and production and marketing and political and financial stability. So the more Northern Ireland is politically stable and functioning or its public policies and finances are under control and on a productive course the better the chance of getting foreign investment and American investment.”
Senator Hart said he met First Minister Peter Robinson and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness separately on Wednesday. He understands the fiscal and budgetary difficulties over resolving matters such as welfare reform which is at the heart of the current logjam.
He was convinced that both leaders were acting in good faith and that they wanted to resolve the current difficulties.
Among some politicians there is suspicion that Sinn Féin wants to protract this current dispute beyond the May 7th Westminster election to test if a possible new British Labour government would relax the welfare cutbacks.
Senator Hart however said he believed a deal would be done before the election. “Based on my meetings I am convinced that they (Mr Robinson and Mr McGuinness) are committed to resolution.”
“I would be very candid if I felt, based on my personal observations and discussions, that any leading political figure here was out to throw sand in the gears I would say so. But I don’t have any sense at all of that with Mr Robinson or Mr McGuinness or any of the other party leaders,” he added.
Senator Hart said that the abandoned planned St Patrick's week meeting between Mr Robinson and Mr McGuinness and President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden was "postponed" rather than "cancelled", and that this meeting could still happen.
He said the "mood" after the Christmas Stormont House Agreement and before the latest crisis which broke on March 9th was that the St Patrick's Day Washington events would be celebratory and a "bit of a victory lap".
He intimated that a rescheduled White House meeting would depend on a deal being done.
Senator Hart also said that a group of 12 to 15 Congress members were planning a fact-finding mission to Northern Ireland in the coming months.
