US:President George Bush has urged the international community to maintain pressure on Iran despite a United States intelligence report that Tehran abandoned its nuclear weapons programme in 2003.
A day after the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), produced by all 16 US intelligence agencies, said that international scrutiny prompted the Iranians to halt development of a nuclear weapons capability, Mr Bush insisted that he still views Iran as a threat.
"I view this report as a warning signal that they had the programme, they halted the programme. And the reason why it's a warning signal is that they could restart it," he told reporters at the White House.
Although US and European diplomats said the report was likely to ease pressure for more sanctions against Tehran, the president said it offered an opportunity to exert further pressure. "You know, the NIE also said that such pressure was effective, and that's what our government has been explaining to other partners in keeping the international pressure on Iran. The best diplomacy, effective diplomacy, is one of which all options are on the table," he said.
Declassified excerpts from the report, which was requested by Congress last year, said that the intelligence agencies had reversed their view, expressed in a 2005 report, that Iran was determined to develop a nuclear weapons capability and was continuing its weapons development programme.
"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons programme suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the programme probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously," the report said.
Even if Iran were to restart its weapons programme now, the country probably could not produce enough highly enriched uranium for a single weapon before the middle of the next decade, the assessment stated. It also expressed doubt about whether Iran "currently intends to develop nuclear weapons".
The report said it is "very unlikely" that Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium from its civilian nuclear programme to develop a weapon before the end of this decade.
"We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame. . . All agencies recognise the possibility that this capability may not be attained until after 2015," the report said.
The latest intelligence estimate stands in sharp contrast to Mr Bush's recent rhetoric on Iran, including an assertion last month that people "interested in avoiding World War III" should be working to prevent Iran from having the knowledge needed to make a nuclear weapon. Mr Bush said yesterday that he first saw the new intelligence estimate last week but he insisted that it did not change his view that Iran was a threat to stability in the Middle East.
"Look, Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous, and Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon. The NIE says that Iran had a hidden - a covert nuclear weapons programme. That's what it said. What's to say they couldn't start another covert nuclear weapons programme? And the best way to ensure that the world is peaceful in the future is for the international community to continue to work together to say to the Iranians, we're going to isolate you," he said.
Israel's defence minister, Ehud Barak, said his country's intelligence services disagreed with the US report and believed that, although Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003, it has since restarted it. "We can't allow ourselves to rest just because of an intelligence report from the other side of the earth, even if it is from our greatest friend," he said.
Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, welcomed the US report, saying it vindicated his government's assertion that its nuclear programme had only peaceful civilian aims. "It's natural that we welcome it when those countries who in the past have questions and ambiguities about this case. . . now amend their views realistically," he said.
Despite grumbling from some neoconservatives, most commentators in Washington believe that the intelligence report has effectively removed from the table the prospect of a US attack on Iran before Mr Bush leaves office. It could also have an impact on next year's presidential election and Democratic candidate Barack Obama said it served as a reminder of the failure of politicians, including Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, to study fully intelligence reports before the invasion of Iraq.
"The juxtaposition of this NIE with the president's suggestion of World War III serves as an important reminder of what we learned with the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq. Members of Congress must carefully read the intelligence before giving the president any justification to use military force," he said.
