Election Diary: First we had the Gerry Adams statement urging the IRA to fully embrace peace and democracy; in other words, to quit the stage.
Or so it seems. Then we had the IRA acknowledging that statement and saying it would respond in "due course". Now last night we had Adams saying that the IRA had agreed to conduct that internal debate.
A few more veils will have to be dropped during this routine before we see the true colour of P O'Neill's underwear. Yet Adams time and time again has insisted that this is the Real McCoy.
The SDLP's Séamus Mallon warned yesterday - before Adams's statement was issued at 8pm - that people would not be forgiving if this proved to be "another gimmick", particularly as all this was happening during election time when republicans were under pressure over the Robert McCartney murder and the allegations of criminality.
If there is to be any chance of movement it will hinge on whether the IRA will respond positively to Adams's urgings that it should go away. It would be a surprise if the IRA did not respond in such a manner.
Adams did not predict last night how the IRA would react but the key line in his statement was: "A positive decision by the IRA at the end of its internal deliberations will have enormous significance and impact. It has the potential to halt the downward spiral in the peace process and to strengthen our ability to advance our republican objectives."
Vincent Browne in his magazine, the Village, recently wrote that Adams in the first draft of his speech initially calling on the IRA to retreat to the mists was explicit in saying the IRA should disband. This was toned down to a call for the IRA to fully embrace peace and democracy "after consultations within the republican movement", according to Browne.
Browne did not reveal the source of this information but it is likely that Adams, who occasionally writes for the magazine, told Browne this was his original intention.
This and other senior Sinn Féin briefings indicate that this time Adams has crossed a sort of Rubicon in terms of the Sinn Féin/IRA relationship. This indeed may be the case.
The problem in terms of the peace process however is that the vast majority of unionists and quite a number of nationalists now simply don't believe him.
The current cynicism is understandable. The Adams speech is serving Sinn Féin well in this election.
The murder of Robert McCartney and allegations of widespread IRA criminality can be difficult issues for Sinn Féin on the doorsteps but they can be neutralised to some extent by the riposte that Adams has promised a viable means to end all such actions.
Adams himself is conscious of the suspicion and has often over the course of this political campaign insisted he is not engaging in a big "con".
To the allegations of a republican "snow job", he told me last week: "My sense is that thinking unionists know that this is the genuine article . . . I do think that unionists have some sense that we are very, very serious and genuine about all of this."
If the IRA responds positively in the next couple of months, talks could resume in the autumn, creating the possibility of a deal next spring or sometime in 2006. There are two determinants here: that the IRA really does go out of business and that Ian Paisley will believe the IRA.
At the moment the line from Paisley is that there appears no chance of Adams delivering but neither has he closed any doors. He told me when I asked him specifically about this issue: "It can all be remedied by action. Gerry Adams can act, so we are waiting for his answer."
And how long would it take for republicans to demonstrate their bona fides? "I can't say that but if he stops and makes the others stop that would be the proving of it," he said. "When the man in the street says, 'Yes, this is over, we have no more killings, we have no more beatings up, we have no more recruiting, we have no more terrorism, that's it'. It would be obvious. Peace will prove itself."
It's very simple really. If the IRA delivers decisively rather than ambiguously then a deal is on, eventually. If it doesn't, we remain stuck where politics is usually stuck in Northern Ireland.
