House price fall reverses upward trend seen in May

PROPERTY PRICES across the State fell again last month, reversing a temporary upward trend in the housing market, official statistics…

PROPERTY PRICES across the State fell again last month, reversing a temporary upward trend in the housing market, official statistics show.

According to the Residential Property Price Index, which is compiled by the Central Statistics Office, residential property prices across the country fell by 1.1 per cent in June and by 14.4 per cent on annual basis.

The monthly decline follows a 0.2 per cent rise in May, the first monthly rise in nearly five years, which some analysts read as a turning point in the long-running trend of collapsing prices.

The figures, based on mortgage drawdown data supplied by banks, showed residential property prices in Dublin, which had seen three months of consecutive growth prior to last month, fell by 1 per cent in June and were 16.4 per cent lower than a year ago.

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House prices in the capital fell by 0.8 per cent during the month and by 16.4 per cent on an annual basis.

Dublin apartment prices decreased by 3.4 per cent in June and were down 17.9 per cent on the same period last year.

Residential property prices in the capital are now 57 per cent lower than their 2007 peak.

The average price of residential properties elsewhere, excluding Dublin, fell by 1 per cent in June compared with a decline of 1.9 per cent in June 2011.

Overall, property prices outside of Dublin were down 13.5 per cent in the year to the end of June.

The fall in property prices has been marginally less pronounced than in the capital, falling 47 per cent since 2007.

Overall, the national index is 50 per cent lower than its highest level in 2007.

Davy stockbrokers said the latest figures confirmed that recent suggestions of a turnaround in the property market had been “premature”.

They also noted the drop in June more than reversed the slight increase seen in May and, with weak bank lending, high unemployment and oversupply there was no sign of a turning point in the Dublin market.

Overall prices would come down further, they believed.

Owen Callan, a senior dealer at Danske Markets in Dublin, said: “So far this year, we’ve seen varied reports on house prices in Ireland, but this official record should provide more certainty for investors.

“The fact is that while residential house prices have declined slightly more in the year to 2012, the levels of decline are broadly speaking, stabilising.

“When compared with Spain, for example, international investors will see Ireland as a mostly stable environment,” Mr Callan added.

“However, it’s clear that they will look for a further steadying of conditions in Ireland over a five- to six-month period before making any real judgment decisions.”

The Professional Insurance Brokers’ Association (Piba) said: “While a little perplexing, given the better May figure, it is not altogether surprising given the fragility of the market and the prevalence of negative factors – from a lending drought to worries over the fate of the euro to a lack of suitable properties in some areas”.

Piba’s chief operations officer Rachel Doyle said its recent broker surveys had shown more than 55 per cent of respondents experienced an increase in demand for mortgages.

“Market norms would indicate a consequent increase in prices, but there is little that is normal in the current market.”

Ms Doyle said the main drivers of demand currently were people believing property prices were close to the bottom of the market and the fact that it was now as cheap to buy as rent.

Nationally

-1.1%

Percentage monthly change in June

-14.4%

Percentage annual change in June

In Dublin

-16.4%

Percentage annual change in June

Rest of the State

-13.5%

Percentage annual change in June

Since 2007 peak

-57%

in Dublin

Since 2007 peak

-47%

in the rest of the State

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy is Economics Correspondent of The Irish Times