Hizbullah moves to consolidate its political gains in Lebanon

Now that the "Lesser Jihad", the battle against Israel, has been won, Hizbullah is focusing on the "Greater Jihad", the struggle…

Now that the "Lesser Jihad", the battle against Israel, has been won, Hizbullah is focusing on the "Greater Jihad", the struggle to reconstruct the Israeli occupation zone, raise the living standard of its deprived populace and resettle the exiles.

While Hizbullah leaders are still speaking in the language of the military campaign, threatening retribution if every inch of Lebanese land is not liberated and all prisoners are not freed, the movement is moving quickly to consolidate its political gains on the ground.

Dr Nizar Hamzeh, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, who has closely followed Hizbullah's evolution, says that the movement is maintaining "strict discipline over its fighters" in order to retain the goodwill of war-weary residents.

Political organisers, security men, welfare workers from the Martyrs' Foundation and engineers from "Jihad al-Bina", the "Struggle for Reconstruction", are moving into Shia Muslim villages in the border zone. Most are recruited from among the displaced, and trained in Beirut or elsewhere.

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"They are natives of these villages so they are just going home," he commented. While "Hizbullah has no intention of either challenging or replacing the government or interfering in the affairs of the people, the organisation will do its part to rebuild and develop the area".

Dr Hamzeh does not expect the Lebanese army to deploy along the border until the Syrian-Israeli dispute over the Golan is settled or negotiations break down definitively. He believes that militiamen from all groups will remain in the south for about three months. "There will be a balance of terror, no peace, no war," he said.

"The resistance will not launch attacks into Israel," which has pledged massive retaliation, and "Israel will not risk missiles on its northern settlements. Hizbullah can even hit Haifa with its Frog missiles."

Once matters are resolved one way or the other and the Lebanese army moves in, "Hizbullah will disarm and disband its military wing", Dr Hamzeh said.

In the view of Mr Muhammad Mashnouk, a candidate for a Sunni Muslim seat in August's parliamentary poll, "Hizbullah is certain to increase the number of seats" over the eight it holds. "No one has any doubts about who liberated the south."

Michael Jansen

Michael Jansen

Michael Jansen contributes news from and analysis of the Middle East to The Irish Times