Public health officials have urged people to “stay home” in order to avoid an “almost unimaginable scenario”, as case numbers reached a new daily record.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) on Wednesday night reported 1,718 confirmed cases of the virus, surpassing yesterday’s record of 1,546.
The new figures also pushed total case numbers over the 90,000 mark, at 90,157.
Hospital Report
A further 13 deaths were also reported by Nphet, bringing the total number of deaths to 2,226.
Of the new cases, 358 are in Dublin, 164 in Cork, 155 in Louth, 150 in Donegal and 112 in Galway, with the remaining 779 cases spread across all other counties.
The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital increased to 455 on Wednesday afternoon, up from 411 the previous day. ICU cases increased to 37, from 34 on Tuesday.
The median age is 34 years and 66 per cent of cases are under 45.
Ireland is no longer in a containment phase and is once again in a mitigation phase, according to chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan.
“Given the current levels of transmission in the community, every individual should consider themselves potentially infectious.
“It is essential that we all limit our contacts to our own household now, restrict our movements and do not give Covid-19 any further opportunities to spread.
“Everyone needs to stay at home other than for essential work or care. This is not the time to be visiting other houses.”
The reproduction number, a measure of how much the virus is being transmitted, currently stands at 1.8, Dr Henry said. Even if this were reduced to 1.4, this could lead to 3,000 cases a day by the end of January, he warned.
It was “unthinkable” that the reproduction number would be maintained 1.8, he said.
At a reproduction number of 1.4, there could be 1,200-1,400 hospitalisations by the end of January.
The growth rate is estimated to be 7-10 per cent per day with a doubling time of seven to 10 days, he said.
“We must take action immediately to prevent an almost unimaginable scenario, where case numbers in 7 to 10 days time are twice what they are today. Stay home.”
The 14-day incidence of the disease now stands at 272.7 cases per 100,000 people, but is near or over 500 in three counties – Donegal, Louth and Monaghan.
Testing capacity
Earlier on Wednesday, the Health Service Executive warned that the testing and contact-tracing system for Covid-19 is approaching maximum capacity as virus transmission hits record levels.
Continued exponential growth in cases will challenge the system and reduce the marginal benefit it provides, say officials.
With widespread transmission of the virus now occurring in the community, the benefit of individuals taking action to prevent infection "far outweighs" what testing and tracing can achieve, according to HSE chief executive Paul Reid.
Mr Reid said there was little point to continuing to build capacity in the system when so much transmission was occurring and the real driver for reducing it was individual action.
While demand was still being met, “you reach a point when you [are] beyond certain levels where testing doesn’t add much”.
HSE national lead for testing and tracing Niamh O’Beirne said the system was close to reaching capacity, which was finite.
Last week, there was a 41 per cent increase in demand for testing in the community, while contact tracing calls rose 129 per cent.
The average number of contacts of a case has risen to 6.1, but up to 100 cases a day have more than 30 contacts, officials said.
Testing capacity now stands at 25,000 tests a day, with another 2,000 tests capable of being processed overseas.
Mr Reid said most of the worst concerns of the health service before Christmas have now been realised due to “an unprecedented and toxic combination of potential scenarios”.
These include a “massive” rise in daily cases, positivity rates increasing to levels not seen in a long time; and “extreme levels of numbers of close contacts”.
Hospitals have seen a “significant step-up” in demand over the last 72 hours, he said, and the number of outbreaks in nursing homes has risen.
Describing the situation as “alarming and high risk”, Mr Reid made an “urgent and serious” call to the public to take immediate action to reduce their risk of acquiring Covid-19.
People should withdraw from planned activities and protect themselves, he said, with the safest place being in the home.
Up to 2,000 calls were made to positive cases on Tuesday, the highest daily number yet recorded.
Overall test positivity rates have risen to 10 per cent, reaching 20 per cent on Tuesday.
The average daily number of cases last week was 1,034, three times the level of a fortnight earlier.
The highest incidence of cases is among 19- to 24-year-olds, followed by 25- to 34-year-olds.
On the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine, Mr Reid said 40,000 doses had arrived in Ireland and another 40,000 were expected in each of the next two weeks.
He said there were no delays in the arrival of supplies so far and he did not expect any with the next delivery.
The vaccination programme will take place in seven hospitals next week and will start in long-term care facilities.
Vaccination in long-term care facilities would be completed in a three-week sweep for the first does and another three-week sweep for the second, Mr Reid said.
Mr Reid said all EU member states were getting the same share of vaccines as Ireland and no country had “full predictability” in relation to the time of deliveries.
