There have been indications in recent days that another sequencing process may be emerging whereby any move by the IRA to put its arms beyond use would be contingent on a radical scaling down of the British army presence in Northern Ireland.
After meeting an IRA representative last week to discuss disarmament, the head of the decommissioning body, Gen John de Chastelain, will today meet the UVF's intermediary, Mr Billy Hutchinson of the Progressive Unionist Party.
The RUC Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, yesterday pointed to the reduced army presence in Northern Ireland, and said he too wanted to see demilitarisation, but based on the level of the security threat.
At the weekend the Sinn Fein leader, Mr Gerry Adams, called for an immediate reduction in troop levels in the North.
In the past Mr Adams has insisted there could be no "unilateral" IRA disarmament. While security and republican sources are very guarded about how the decommissioning issue might be solved, there is an increasing focus on British troop levels in Northern Ireland, suggesting that further demilitarisation might be the key to resolving the arms issue.
In Derry yesterday, the new Minister of Education, Mr Martin McGuinness, said demilitarisation must happen because it was part of the Belfast Agreement. In particular, he called for the removal of the British bases in south Armagh, notwithstanding the fact that the British army has said there is still a serious security threat in that area.
At a Police Authority function in Belfast yesterday, Sir Ronnie said security activity had been decreasing in response to the level of threat. He added, however, that he had no intelligence indicating that IRA disarmament was imminent.
"Our first priority is to protect the lives of all our people, so, of course, we want demilitarisation. But we want it prudently, and the cart must not be put before the horse," he told reporters.
"We are seeing very, very positive developments which we all welcome, and I can assure everyone that no one wants to retain a military response, a military installation, for a moment longer than is needed. So we will be co-operating absolutely fully in doing all we can to make progress towards normality." The British and Irish governments are expected to have Gen de Chastelain's first report on his meeting with the IRA's intermediary shortly.
The IRA has not disclosed the identity of its go-between, although speculation surrounds the IRA chief in the Maze prison, Padraig Wilson, and/or leading Belfast republican Mr Brian Keenan.
Mr Peter Weir, a unionist Assembly member, expressed concern last night that "a fudge or fiddle on decommissioning is being cooked up". He added: "We need more than tricks with smoke and mirrors. We don't want any more mysteries. We want real action on decommissioning."
Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness have said decommissioning must be left to Gen de Chastelain's commission, but Mr Nigel Dodds, the Minister of Social Development, said it was "ludicrous" to suggest that IRA disarmament be "kept out of the political realm".
"The appointment of an interlocutor by the IRA is a far cry from actual decommissioning, still less its completion," he said.
Mr Danny Kennedy, the UUP chairman of the Assembly's education committee, yesterday rejected any suggestions that Mr Martin McGuinness "will force-feed the Irish language to Protestant schoolchildren".
Any such proposal would be bitterly resisted, not only by unionist members of the education committee but also on the floor of the Assembly. Mr Mc Guinness could not enforce "his own personal narrow sectarian political agenda against the wishes of the Assembly", he said.
