IRELAND’S CLIMATE will continue to warm, particularly in the summer and autumn, with possible increases in average temperatures as high as 4 degrees towards the end of this century, according to a major scientific study.
Minister for the Environment John Gormley described the findings as “stark”, saying that while the study showed that we may enjoy a Mediterranean-style climate in less than a century, “Ireland will not escape significant negative impacts from climate change”.
This underlined the urgent need for a global agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions as well as for a national adaptation strategy to deal with climate change as an integral part of our development planning here, he said.
“In order to meet these challenges, we need to change the way we go about our day-to-day business, we need to change how we do business and finally we need to focus on how we can become less dependent on carbon-based fuels,” Mr Gormley added.
The study, Ireland in a Warmer World: Scientific Predictions of the Irish Climate, forecasts that the greatest warming will occur in the south and east of the country.
Summers will become generally drier, with a 10 to 18 per cent reduction in rainfall.
But autumn and winter seasons will become wetter, with increases of 15-25 per cent by 2100.
The frequency of very intense cyclones affecting Ireland is also likely to increase as well as the number of storm surge events.
According to the study, the northwest coast is likely to experience a 30 per cent increase in surge heights of between 50cm and 100cm by mid-century.
Extreme wave heights are also likely to increase in most regions, leading to coastal flooding.
“The seas around Ireland have been warming at the rate of 0.3-0.4 degrees Celsius per decade since the 1980s,” it says.
In the Irish Sea, the warming has been even greater, at 0.6-0.7 degrees per decade over the past quarter of a century.
Sea levels are also rising by about 3.5cm per decade.
“The trends are consistent with what has been observed globally and are predicted to continue over the coming decades,” according to the study, which was compiled by a team from Met Éireann and UCD.
Their computer modelling shows increases in the extreme values of wind and precipitation associated with very intense cyclones.
“This implies an increased risk of storm damage and flooding in vulnerable Irish coastal areas,” the authors of the study say.
Average wind speeds are not expected to change significantly, but the study says there is likely to be an overall reduction of 4-5 per cent in strengths towards the end of the century, particularly in summer, and an increase of up to 10 per cent in winter.
Changes in rainfall and temperature are likely to lead to a rise in the flow of water in rivers and streams, which would also pose an increased risk of flooding, and a corresponding reduction in summer flows, leading to drought in some areas.
Decreases in the summer flow of rivers will have significant consequences for water availability, water quality, fisheries and recreational water use, the authors say.
“Changes in the climate may impede the recovery of the ozone layer,” according to the study.
Taken together with a warmer climate, there may be negative health consequences due to a greater exposure to ultraviolet radiation, particularly in summer.
“Risk of skin cancer in Ireland will remain significant. Moreover, a warmer Irish climate is likely to increase outdoor leisure activities and potentially increase the exposure to damaging UV-B [radiation]” – a problem that affects the Irish in Australia.
On the plus side, demand for heating is likely to reduce significantly as the climate warms.
“Energy demand has already slightly decreased in the south of the country. A clear, continuing decrease in demand is predicted for the rest of this century.”
The study was prepared by the C41 Project (Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland), a collaboration between Met Éireann and the UCD Meteorology and Climate Centre.
A database of the results is available on the C4I website, www.c4i.ie
