CONSIDERATIONS OF political geography are likely to be paramount in two new minister of state appointments to be announced in the aftermath of this week’s budget.
The positions in question are on the Labour side of the Coalition and therefore in the gift of Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore.
The vacancies arise as a result of the resignation of Labour TD for Longford-Westmeath Willie Penrose in protest at a Government decision to close the Army barracks in Mullingar.
Mr Penrose was minister of state for housing and planning with the right to attend and speak at Cabinet meetings but not to vote, a position informally known as “super junior”.
One of the existing Labour Ministers of State is expected to be reassigned the housing brief, with super junior status.
Speculation centres on the Tipperary North TD and Minister of State for Public and Commuter Transport Alan Kelly who is seen as the most likely to succeed.
Other Ministers of State mentioned are Kathleen Lynch who is responsible for the Disability, Equality and Mental Health brief, Róisín Shortall (Primary Care) and Seán Sherlock (Research and Innovation).
Promotion of one of the above would leave a vacancy for a new Minister of State, with Meath TD Dominic Hannigan featuring prominently in speculation, along with Labour whip Emmet Stagg and Dublin Central TD Joe Costello.
Others mentioned include Cork South Central TD Ciarán Lynch, who is popular with backbenchers, Dublin South TD Alex White and rising star Colm Keaveney from Galway East. He disclosed the negative e-mails sent by outgoing Irish member of the European Court of Auditors Eoin O’Shea about his proposed successor Kevin Cardiff.
Four from five Labour members of the Cabinet are from Dublin constituencies and all of them are from Leinster. There is a clear political need for a wider geographical spread. Two of the existing Labour Ministers of State are Cork-based which militates against Ms Lynch’s prospects.
The fact that Mr Gilmore is withholding the names of the new appointees until after the budget is regarded as a useful means of maintaining party discipline in the current climate of austerity.
The most likely date for an announcement is believed to be Thursday, although it could be held over until later.
Labour ministerial appointments are difficult. After the general election, there were widespread expectations that deputy Labour leader Joan Burton would go from being party spokeswoman on finance to a Cabinet position in the same area.
In the event, it was Brendan Howlin who secured the new post of Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform. This was carved out of the existing finance portfolio and Ms Burton got the “poisoned chalice” of Social Protection.
This gave rise to considerable dissent among Ms Burton’s supporters and elsewhere, with suggestions that the party leader was out of tune with the aspirations of women politicians.
Indeed, Ms Burton herself said she was “surprised and a bit bewildered” when she was told about her new job in a two-minute conversation with the Tánaiste.
There was also discontent over the appointment of Ruairí Quinn to Cabinet instead of Róisín Shortall.
If no Labour women are promoted on this occasion, Mr Gilmore may find himself the target of further criticism.
The original appointment of Willie Penrose as super junior came as a surprise, since his name had not featured in speculation. The ebullient midlands TD is a formidable figure and could not be ignored on that occasion, although he has been unsuccessful since in his demand to save the Mullingar barracks.
