Final predictions from a condemned pundit

Dead man walking. That's what the unfortunates on American death row hear when they are heading for the electric chair

Dead man walking. That's what the unfortunates on American death row hear when they are heading for the electric chair. It's also what journalists foolish enough to predict the Westminster results hear in their inner ear.

They know that if they call one or more of the constituencies wrong, the spin merchants of the successful candidates and the candidates themselves will exact swift and savage revenge. But what the heck! Chaplain, say your prayers.

Dr Paisley will win in North Antrim. Mr Hume will take Foyle, Mr Adams will hold on to West Belfast. That doesn't require great psephological genius.

Mr Trimble has suffered threats, jostling and attempted assault in his Upper Bann constituency. Yet he refused to be intimidated and canvassed regularly. The quieter unionists around Portadown, Lurgan and Banbridge should see him home.

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That's the leaders secure; now for the deputy leaders. Mr Peter Robinson will have little difficulty holding East Belfast for the DUP. Mr Seamus Mallon will withstand the challenge from Mr Conor Murphy of Sinn Fein in Newry and Armagh, although the republican candidate believes this election will establish him as the MP-in-waiting, should Mr Mallon retire next time. Mr Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein accounted for the challenge from the former MP for Mid-Ulster, the Rev William McCrea, and from the SDLP in the last general election. Mid-Ulster is now secure territory.

It took the SDLP's candidate, Mr Eddie McGrady, many years and many elections to win South Down. He saw off a formidable opponent, Enoch Powell, in the past and is too much of an old dog to have any worries. Another dead cert is Mr Trimble's potential successor as UUP leader, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson. You are never quite sure where you are with the Ulster Unionist candidates. East Antrim MP Mr Roy Beggs was an anti-agreement politician until the start of this campaign, but has now tentatively entered the Yes fold. Mr Trimble indeed welcomed him back like a lost lamb.

The DUP Lord Mayor of Belfast, Mr Sammy Wilson, has been snapping at his heels in this election, but Mr Beggs, now partially in the Yes UUP camp but also maintaining a certain No profile, should not be in any serious danger.

Lots of upwardly mobile nationalists have been moving into South Belfast, traditionally a safe Ulster Unionist seat. It's also a mainly pro-agreement constituency with an anti-agreement UUP MP, the Rev Martin Smyth.

With a straight run, the SDLP candidate, Dr Alasdair McDonnell, would make it difficult for Mr Smyth. But Prof Monica McWilliams of the Women's Coalition is also standing here, so the Yes vote will be split and the sitting man should be back. Next time, though, there could be changes.

Even with challenges from the SDLP and Sinn Fein, Mr Nigel Dodds of the DUP should take North Belfast from the sitting Ulster Unionist, Mr Cecil Walker. In North Down, Lady Hermon has the decided advantage over Mr Robert McCartney.

This is where it gets difficult. There are five highly unpredictable constituencies in this election. Numerous factors will affect the outcomes, the most important of which is whether the turnout tomorrow will be small, large or average.

All week Mr Trimble and other Yes politicians have been hammering home the fact that Yes supporters must wake up and realise that this election is potentially as crucial as the referendum on the agreement.

With all the media coverage and canvassing they must be a pretty sleepy bunch if they don't know by now what is at stake.

Mr David Burnside is counting on a good turnout in his battle against the sitting DUP MP, the Rev William McCrea, in South Antrim. Mr McCrea has been warned by his own people against making any incendiary remarks during the campaign and has obeyed that edict.

Mr Burnside tries to play it both Yes and No, and on the stump is not the warmest of candidates. But he could still unseat Mr McCrea.

In the Assembly election Ms Iris Robinson nosed ahead of the Ulster Unionists in Strangford. This is a big battle for the DUP, and even with a higher turnout she can resist the challenge of the Ulster Unionist, Mr David McNarry, who like Mr Burnside tries to play it both ways.

Fermanagh-South Tyrone is a classic four-way struggle, but when the votes are counted Mr James Cooper, a personable Yes Ulster Unionist, should hold Lord Maginnis's old seat.

Mr Trimble is understood to be very worried about East Londonderry, probably with justification. Yet wily old Mr William Ross might just win the day from the DUP's Mr Gregory Campbell.

And finally, there's Stalingrad or West Tyrone. The Sinn Fein electoral machine and the mathematics are with Mr Pat Doherty, but the magic might be with Ms Brid Rodgers of the SDLP, with an outside chance that Mr William Thompson of the UUP could sneak in.

So here they are: UUP, 8; DUP, 4; SDLP, 4; Sinn Fein, 2.

OK, warder, flick the switch.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times