Fears for Chechnya ceasefire linger

THE guns were quieter in Grozny, and there was hope

THE guns were quieter in Grozny, and there was hope. Moscow television showed Russian officers in battle fatigues shaking hands with their Chechen counterparts and smiling in the sunshine.

But behind the display of optimism Russians, who have experienced such ceasefires before, were apprehensive that the latest agreement achieved by the security chief, Mr Alexander Lebed, and the rebel commander, Mr Aslan Maskhadov, would not last.

President Yeltsin extended his support to Mr Lebed and his efforts to find peace, Russian television reported.

But Mr Yeltsin added, in a telephone call to Mr Lebed, that the breakaway republic must remain "an integral part of the Russian Federation." On Thursday Mr Yeltsin had criticised Mr Lebed's efforts.

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The Prime Minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, in a less than enthusiastic welcome for the ceasefire, said yesterday it was just the first step in a process, while the country's most popular newspaper, Moskovsky Komsomolets, greeted the cessation of hostilities with the headline "They Have Won!".

A leading expert on the area, Mr

Allan Kasayev, from the Caucasus region of North Ossetia, was wary: "The peace process is so fragile that it is extremely vulnerable to those who wish to see the war begin again."

There are some who want just that. Many commanders and middle-ranking officers on the ground are consumed by a desire for vengeance following a series of military humiliations at the hands of the rebels.

On the political level there are those in the Kremlin who want Mr Lebed out of the way and a resumption of hostilities would be the fastest and most effective way of achieving their goal.

Aware of these possibilities, a number of "Committees for Solidarity with Lebed" were formed yesterday.

There are divisions, too, among the Chechens, and it remains to be seen if Mr Maskhadov's agreement with Mr Lebed will gain the full support of the rebels' tough political leader, Mr Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, and some of the more extreme military commanders.

While Grozny was relatively peaceful last night, there were reports of fighting from other areas.

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin is a former international editor and Moscow correspondent for The Irish Times