THE EU “now holds the key” to saving the international climate regime from disintegrating in Durban next December, according to a well-informed and long-time participant in the UN negotiations.
Martin Khor, executive director of the South Centre, an inter-governmental agency representing developing countries, said yesterday: “European leadership is needed more than ever before” to prevent the process from “unravelling”.
The climate regime was “on the brink” of collapsing, with the voluntary pledges made by both developed and developing countries under the Copenhagen Accord so inadequate that the world was facing 3 to 4 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century.
Mr Khor said the EU, as “the engine of this train”, needed to commit to renewing the Kyoto Protocol before it expires next year — even without the participation of Japan and others — because this would “give developing countries an incentive to do much more”.
He suggested that such a move would not even cost Europe much, as it had “got its act together” and already had a target of reducing the EU’s overall greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020. All it needed to do was to “internationalise” this commitment.
“Europe can still pull the train along”, Mr Khor said. “It may not be as good a train as we would wish, but it would still be moving”. And eventually, he predicted, the countries that have spurned a renewal of Kyoto would “climb on board” — perhaps even the US.
Describing it as “the elephant in the room”, he said: “We know the problems the US is facing. The [Obama] administration is willing to do more, but they have problems with Congress. But this doesn’t mean we should excuse the US because of that peculiar situation.” Japan, which is still coping with the aftermath of Fukushima, explicitly reiterated this week that it would “never inscribe” its target of reducing emissions by 15 per cent by 2020 under a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol “under any circumstances”.
But Mr Khor said leadership by the EU in renewing the protocol for another five-year period would put pressure on Japan, Canada, Russia and other countries to join in later “and we could have a good regime in five years or so — otherwise the whole thing unravels.” There was “still hope for Durban” if the EU opted to give Kyoto a new lease of life, in the knowledge that major developing countries were already “doing their fair share”, he said, adding that China’s cuts in its emissions were likely to be “double the US” by 2020.
Wendell Trio, Greenpeace’s climate policy co-ordinator who is also a member of the Belgian delegation, said developing countries were looking to the EU to produce at least a political declaration in Durban that would put end to the “lack of clarity” on Kyoto.
He said there was a “much clearer recognition now” of the wide gap between what countries had pledged on emissions cuts under the Copenhagen Accord and what was actually needed to achieve its target of limiting the rise in temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius.
However, there were differences between the 27 EU member states over “what exactly would be the conditions” for agreeing to a second commitment period. This might involve countries outside Kyoto agreeing to “put their targets into domestic policies”, he said.
Another round of talks may be needed before Durban to gain more clarity on outstanding issues, including the Green Climate Fund for developing countries. But the UN secretariat said each gathering costs $5 million (€3.54 million) — and it hasn’t got the funds.
