Fianna Fáil has suffered a big drop in support since the general election and satisfaction with the Taoiseach and the Government is also down significantly, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.
One of the big surprises in the poll is that the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, has a higher satisfaction rating than the Taoiseach and is more popular than any of the party leaders.
Fine Gael and Labour have made significant gains since the election and their joint support is now well ahead of the combined Government parties. Fine Gael has narrowed the gap with Fianna Fáil to just two percentage points, the closest the two parties have been for more than 20 years.
The adjusted figures for party support compared with the election outcome are: Fianna Fáil, 33 per cent (down nine points); Fine Gael, 31 per cent (up four points); Labour, 15 per cent (up five points); Sinn Féin, 7 per cent (no change); Green Party, 5 per cent (no change); PDs, 2 per cent (down one point); and Independents/others, 7 per cent (no change).
The silver lining for the Government is that the Green Party has held on to the support it achieved in the election and its new leader and Minister for the Environment, John Gormley, has a solid satisfaction rating.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. It was taken after a succession of difficulties for the Government ranging from the Taoiseach's evidence at the Mahon tribunal to problems in the health service, the row over Shannon airport, the pay rise for Ministers and the provisional licence debacle.
The core vote for the parties compared with the last Irish Timespoll just before the election in May is: Fianna Fáil, 30 per cent (down nine points); Fine Gael, 22 per cent (up one point); Labour, 10 per cent (up two points); Sinn Féin, 6 per cent (down two points); Greens, 4 per cent (down one point); PDs, 2 per cent (up one point); Independents/ others, 5 per cent (up one point); and undecided voters 20 per cent ( up five points).
The poll reveals that the Government has suffered a serious erosion in its standing since Fianna Fáil returned to power in the general election. The satisfaction rating of the Government has dropped 15 points to 37 per cent while the Taoiseach has suffered an identical drop in his rating to 43 per cent. His dissatisfaction rating at 50 per cent has risen by 16 points.
The Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, at 42 per cent, has dropped six points since the election but he is now closer to Mr Ahern than at any time since he took over as leader of Fine Gael after the 2002 election while his dissatisfaction rating is considerably lower than the Taoiseach's.
The poll also measured the satisfaction rating of the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, for the first time. The positive news for Fianna Fáil is that Mr Ahern's annointed successor has emerged with a higher rating than any of the party leaders.
Another finding is that despite the Labour recovery, the new party leader, Eamon Gilmore, has some way to go to make an impression on the public.
His rating of 30 per cent was the lowest of any party leader and a full 19 per cent behind his predecessor Pat Rabbite in May. This is largely explained by the fact that 49 per cent of respondents had no opinion about him, reflecting the fact that he has taken over the post so recently.
By contrast the new Green Party leader, John Gormley, has made an impressive start with a rating of 40 per cent, which is slightly up on that achieved in the last poll by his predecessor Trevor Sargent. Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams, at 41 per cent, has dropped nine points since the last poll while Mary Harney, with a 35 per cent rating, is marginally behind the rating achieved by her predecessor Michael McDowell in May.
The PDs have seen a modest increase in their level of core support but it is still a long way off the level that would be required to re-establish a significant presence in the Dáil.
Fianna Fáil's losses have been heaviest in Dublin and in Munster. In terms of social class its support among working-class C2DE voters has dropped heavily since the election. By contrast its standing among the better-off ABC1 votes has remained rock solid.
